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Call sheet · Q3'25

Keel Infrastructure Corp. (formerly Bitfarms) (BITF)

Q3'25 earnings call · held November 13, 2025 · compared with the Q2'25 call · management-credibility review
5/12
Disclosure score
4 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
They're betting the entire company on infrastructure for GPUs that don't exist yet, deliberately delaying revenue to wait for higher prices that may never come. The Vera Rubin pivot is either visionary or delusional: redesigning everything for 370kW/rack GPUs that won't ship until Q4 2026 while competitors lock in revenue today at 'only' $150/kW/month. The binding constraint isn't power or capital, it's management's refusal to sign deals, justified by Ben Gagnon's theory that 'every additional dollar earned in a lease goes to the bottom line' so waiting for $180 vs taking $150 today is worth the delay. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin mining business they're supposedly winding down is the only thing funding this entire speculation. My view changes if they sign even one HPC contract in Q4, proving actual demand exists at any price.

The 30-second version

  • THE SLEEPER: They're abandoning Blackwell to bet everything on unproven Vera Rubin GPUs that don't ship until Q4 2026
  • The obvious AI pivot story masks a radical strategy: wait for higher prices instead of locking revenue
  • Bitcoin mining is secretly funding everything while management pretends it doesn't matter

What changed this quarter

MetricQ2'25Q3'25Change
Revenue (continuing ops)$59M (YoY: +104%)$69M (YoY: +156%)+17% QoQ acceleration
EPS (continuing ops)-$0.09-$0.0811% improvement but still bleeding
Net Loss (continuing ops)$49M$46M6% reduction in losses
Gross Mining Margin45%35%-1000 bps compression
Direct Cost per BTC$48,200$48,200Flat despite halving pressures
All-in Cost per BTC$77,100$82,400 (effective: $55,200)+$5,300 nominal, but derivatives cut 33%
Adjusted EBITDA$9M (15% margin)$20M (28% margin)+122% QoQ, +1300 bps margin expansion
Cash G&A$20M$14M-30% QoQ cost reduction
Bitcoin Mined718 BTC520 BTC-28% production decline
Hash Rate~11 EH (continuing ops)Not disclosedMetric disappeared completely

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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