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Call sheet · Q1'25

Keel Infrastructure Corp. (formerly Bitfarms) (BITF)

Q1'25 earnings call · held May 14, 2025 · compared with the Q4'24 call · management-credibility review
3/12
Disclosure score
3 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
Bitfarms is executing a faith-based pivot to HPC that's running 6 months behind their narrative. While the Macquarie financing validates the strategy directionally, the master site plans aren't done, equipment isn't ordered, and customer conversations are preliminary despite owning these sites since March. The binding constraint isn't power or location, it's execution capability and customer acquisition in a market where every Bitcoin miner is chasing the same hyperscaler dollars. Management's admission that customer diligence takes 9-12 months means no HPC revenue until late 2026 while they burn $6M/month. My view changes if they announce a signed LOI with a named hyperscaler or demonstrate meaningful progress on master site plans by end of Q2.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper: Macquarie's $300M validates HPC pivot but master plan milestone reveals they're 3-6 months behind where they need to be
  • The obvious: Paraguay sale + Stronghold buy transforms portfolio to 70% US, but they're burning $6M/month with no HPC revenue in sight
  • The red flag: Monthly production reports discontinued while HPC customer conversations remain vague

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'24Q1'25Change
Revenue$56M (Q4 2024)$67M (+33% YoY)+20% sequential growth
Net Income/Loss$15M profit (Q4 2024)-$36M loss$51M deterioration QoQ
Adjusted EBITDA$14M (Q4 2024)$15MFlat despite revenue growth
Adjusted EBITDA Margin25% (Q4 2024)23%-200 bps compression
Direct Mining Margin47% (Q4 2024)43%-400 bps deterioration
Bitcoin Mined654 BTC (Q4 2024)699 BTC+7% increase
Revenue per BTC$83,400 (Q4 2024)$92,500+11% improvement
Cost per BTC (all-in)$60,800 (Q4 2024)$72,300+19% cost inflation
Exahash Under Management18.6 EH (end Q4)19.5 EH+5% growth
Free Cash FlowNot disclosed$8M/month projectedNew disclosure

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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