Impinj (PI)

The sleeper story is that Impinj is morphing from an IC supplier into a custom silicon shop for logistics giants, which explains both the record bookings and the terrible margins. The market sees recovery, but I see channel stuffing masked as strength, with partners ordering beyond normal lead times not because of demand but competitor supply fears. The binding constraint isn't market demand or competition; it's that their end customers are burning inventory while they're stuffing the channel, creating a whipsaw that will hit Q3 hard. Most revealing quote: 'We didn't realize that in the fourth quarter... the logistics build had masked some weakness in retail apparel.' My view changes if they provide weekly inventory metrics showing true channel normalization, not just 'healthy' platitudes.