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Call sheet · Q4'25

TTM Technologies (TTMI)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 4, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
7/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story: Management buried a commitment to double earnings by 2027, which implies $5+ EPS and makes this a compelling growth story at 15x forward earnings. The obvious AI narrative (57% data center growth) is real but comes with a hidden constraint: 100% of AI production is trapped in China with no US alternative for 18+ months. The Penang disaster is quietly worsening (180bp headwind vs 160bp guide) while cash flow quality is deteriorating badly. Most revealing quote: 'We really hope we do better' on Penang, a shocking admission of lost control. My view changes if Penang hits breakeven by Q2 or if they announce customer commitments for Eau Claire that de-risk the China concentration.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper: Management just committed to DOUBLE earnings by 2027, buried behind the AI narrative
  • AI data center at 28% of revenue growing 57% YoY, but here's the constraint: it's all China capacity
  • Penang disaster quietly worsening: headwind increased from 160bp guided to 180bp actual

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Revenue$752.7M (22% YoY)$774.3M (19% YoY)300bp deceleration in growth
Non-GAAP EPS$0.67 (22% YoY)$0.70 (43% YoY)Record high, acceleration
Gross Margin21.5%21.7%+20bp sequential improvement
Adjusted EBITDA Margin16.1%16.3%+20bp expansion
Operating Cash Flow$141.8M (18.8% of sales)$63M (8.1% of sales)1070bp margin collapse
Data Center Computing Revenue %23% of sales20% of sales300bp mix decline despite 57% growth
A&D Revenue %45% of sales41% of sales400bp mix decline
A&D Backlog$1.46B$1.60B+$140M backlog build
A&D Book-to-Bill0.99x1.46x+47 points surge
90-Day Backlog$610.4M$654.9M+7.3% sequential build

Accountability tracked

6 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged5 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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