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Call sheet · Q3'25

TTM Technologies (TTMI)

Q3'25 earnings call · held October 29, 2025 · compared with the Q2'25 call · management-credibility review
4/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that A&D backlog has stalled at $1.46B for three straight quarters despite record defense spending, while book-to-bill can't break 1.0. Yes, data center AI is booming at 44% growth, but Penang is hemorrhaging money with no breakeven timeline, and the new CEO's first move was to kill transparency metrics. The binding constraint isn't demand, it's execution: they can't convert their Malaysian investment into profits, their defense franchise is mature, and Wisconsin vanished from the narrative. Most revealing quote: 'We are not yet sure when we will reach breakeven.' My view changes if Penang hits $20M quarterly revenue in Q1 or A&D backlog breaks $1.6B.

The 30-second version

  • The real story: A&D backlog is quietly stalling at $1.46B while book-to-bill deteriorates
  • Data center AI story remains intact but Penang is becoming an albatross
  • New CEO Edwin Roks stops disclosing utilization rates and advanced technology mix

What changed this quarter

MetricQ2'25Q3'25Change
Revenue$730.6M (21% YoY)$752.7M (22% YoY)+100bps YoY acceleration
Non-GAAP EPS$0.58 (49% YoY)$0.67 (22% YoY)Growth rate decelerated 2700bps
Operating Margin11.1%9.6%-150bps sequential deterioration
A&D Revenue$327.6M (45% of total)$336.8M (45% of total)Mix flat despite 'pull forward'
Data Center Revenue$153.4M (21% of total)$173.1M (23% of total)+200bps mix gain
A&D Program Backlog$1.46B$1.46BZero growth despite record defense budgets
90-Day Backlog$496.8M$610.4M+23% sequential growth
Book-to-Bill (Total)0.891.15+26pts improvement
Book-to-Bill (A&D)0.690.99Still below 1 despite 'strong demand'
Cash from Operations$97.8M (13.4% of sales)$141.8M (18.8% of sales)+540bps margin expansion

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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