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Call sheet · Q2'25

TTM Technologies (TTMI)

Q2'25 earnings call · held July 30, 2025 · compared with the Q1'25 call · management-credibility review
5/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
TTM killed their utilization disclosure while claiming AI is driving acceleration, a classic 'hide the denominator' move that signals unit economics are deteriorating. Record earnings of $0.58 and 21% revenue growth look great until you realize Penang is hemorrhaging cash with no breakeven visibility, Syracuse is delayed, and Wisconsin has zero customer commitments. The binding constraint isn't demand, it's execution: they can't successfully ramp complex boards in new facilities at acceptable yields, which explains why they're hiding utilization. Management's quote that they're 'not yet sure when' Penang reaches breakeven after confidently guiding Q3 last quarter tells you everything. My view changes if Penang exceeds $15M revenue in Q3 with a clear path to $30M in Q4, but Edman retiring before any new facility proves out suggests he knows that won't happen.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper: TTM just killed their utilization disclosure right as AI demand 'accelerates', classic visibility fade
  • Record Q2 results mask Penang disaster: breakeven pushed out indefinitely after promised Q3 target
  • CEO Edman announces retirement at the peak, leaving successor with three unproven facilities and no visibility

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'25Q2'25Change
Revenue$648.7M (+14% YoY)$730.6M (+21% YoY)+700 bps YoY acceleration
Non-GAAP EPS$0.50 (+79% YoY)$0.58 (+49% YoY)Deceleration in growth rate
Operating Margin10.5% (+340 bps YoY)11.1% (+210 bps YoY)Margin expansion slowing
A&D Segment Revenue47% of total45% of totalMix shift away from highest margin
Data Center Revenue21% of total21% of totalFlat despite AI hype
A&D Program Backlog$1.55B$1.46B$90M sequential decline
Book-to-Bill Ratio1.100.89Below parity, demand softening
Operating Cash Flow-$10.7M (-1.6% margin)$97.8M (13.4% margin)Massive swing positive
Penang Revenue$2.2M$5.2M+136% QoQ but still burning cash
Penang Operating Loss$11.5M~$14M (210 bps drag)Losses accelerating

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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