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Call sheet · Q3'24

TTM Technologies (TTMI)

Q3'24 earnings call · held October 30, 2024 · compared with the Q2'24 call · management-credibility review
6/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
Penang is shaping up as a $60M annual cash bonfire with break-even slipping quarters while customers struggle to understand what they're even qualifying. The Street sees record A&D backlog and celebrates, but the real story is data center computing concentration risk with 85% tied to AI and only '3-4 major customers', one timing hiccup already cost them 200 bps of mix this quarter. That $17.8M FX loss that crushed EPS? Management spent more time talking about their beam signing ceremony than explaining how they lost 30% of earnings to currency translation. As Edman admitted about Penang customers: 'They are not too familiar with greenfield facilities for high layer count production.' My view changes if Penang actually ships $25M+ in Q4, proving this is execution not structural.

The 30-second version

  • Malaysia facility is becoming a $15M quarterly cash drain with break-even slipping another 2 quarters
  • A&D hit record $1.49B backlog but data center is the real story with 85% now AI-driven
  • Foreign exchange 'unrealized' loss of $17.8M crushed EPS but management buried it below the line

What changed this quarter

MetricQ2'24Q3'24Change
Revenue$605.1M (10.7% YoY)$616.5M (7.6% YoY)YoY growth decelerated 310 bps
Non-GAAP EPS$0.39 (21.9% YoY)$0.41 (-4.7% YoY)Flipped from growth to decline
Operating Margin9.0% (60 bps YoY improvement)11.8% (170 bps YoY improvement)+280 bps sequential surge
A&D Revenue %45% of total46% of total100 bps share gain
Data Center Computing %21% of total19% of total200 bps share loss on timing
A&D Program Backlog$1.45B$1.49BRecord high, +$40M sequential
Operating Cash Flow$41.9M (6.9% of sales)$65.1M (10.6% of sales)+55% sequential surge
Asia Pacific Utilization64%60%400 bps sequential decline
North America Utilization39%35%400 bps sequential decline
Foreign Exchange Impact+$0.5M gain-$17.8M loss$18.3M adverse swing

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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