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Call sheet · Q1'25

TTM Technologies (TTMI)

Q1'25 earnings call · held April 30, 2025 · compared with the Q4'24 call · management-credibility review
4/12
Disclosure score
3 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that TTMI just reported the worst cash flow quality red flag possible: negative operating cash flow in a quarter with record earnings, blamed on customers demanding longer payment terms. The Street sees 10.5% margins and celebrates, but Penang is hemorrhaging $11.5M quarterly on $2.2M of revenue while management 'hopes' for Q3 breakeven. The binding constraint isn't demand, it's execution: they can't convert backlog to cash, can't make Penang work, and can't hit their own timelines. Most revealing quote: 'some of our OEM customers changed to EMS companies with longer payment terms', translation: we're financing our customers' working capital. My view changes if Q2 operating cash flow exceeds $50M, proving Q1 was truly just timing.

The 30-second version

  • Cash flow collapsed while earnings hit records, revealing a classic receivables quality problem
  • Record margins masking Penang disaster that's getting worse, not better
  • A&D backlog mysteriously flat despite 'strong' bookings, suggesting execution problems

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'24Q1'25Change
Revenue$651M (14% YoY)$648.7M (14% YoY)Flat YoY growth maintained
Non-GAAP EPS$0.60 (46% YoY)$0.50 (79% YoY)YoY growth accelerated but sequential decline
Non-GAAP Net Income$62.8M$52.4M-17% sequential decline
Non-GAAP Operating Margin10.1%10.5%+40 bps sequential expansion
Operating Cash Flow$86.1M (13.2% of sales)-$10.7M (-1.6% of sales)Turned negative, $97M deterioration
A&D Revenue %47%47%Flat despite 'strong demand'
A&D Program Backlog$1.56B$1.55B-$10M decline
Data Center Revenue %22%21%-100 bps mix shift
Penang Revenue~$1M implied$2.2M+120% but still minimal
Penang Operating Loss~$8M implied$11.5MLoss widening despite revenue growth

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made6 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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