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Call sheet · Q4'24

TTM Technologies (TTMI)

Q4'24 earnings call · held February 5, 2025 · compared with the Q3'24 call · management-credibility review
3/12
Disclosure score
3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that TTM is using a $14.1M unrealized FX gain to mask a massive operating miss, then conveniently changing their methodology next quarter so you can't compare. The Street sees record A&D revenues, but the binding constraint is that book-to-bill crashed from 1.26 to 1.14, signaling peak growth. Management claims 'we're still looking at that Q3 time period' for Penang breakeven, but at $4-5M Q1 revenue, they need a 6x ramp in two quarters. My view changes if Penang hits $15M+ in Q1 revenue, proving customer adoption is real rather than aspirational.

The 30-second version

  • The real story: 'Unrealized' FX gains of $14.1M are masking operating weakness
  • A&D record revenues look great until you realize book-to-bill crashed from 1.26 to 1.14
  • Penang is still bleeding but management stopped quantifying the drag

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'24Q4'24Change
Revenue$616.5M (7.7% YoY)$651M (14.4% YoY)+670 bps YoY acceleration
Non-GAAP EPS$0.41$0.60 (includes $0.14 FX gain)+46% but artificially inflated
Operating Margin11.8%10.1%-170 bps deterioration
A&D Revenue$283M (46% of total)$306M (47% of total)Record high but mix shift minimal
A&D Book-to-Bill1.26 (two quarters)1.14-12 points deceleration
Data Center Computing Revenue$117M (19% of total)$143M (22% of total)+44% YoY surge
Automotive Revenue$86M (14% of total)$72M (11% of total)Continued collapse
Cash from Operations$65.1M (10.6% of sales)$86.1M (13.2% of sales)+260 bps improvement
Net Debt/EBITDA1.4x1.2x20 bps improvement
Asia Pacific Utilization60%59%Flat despite data center surge

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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