T1 Energy (TE)

The sleeper story here is that T1 just executed a desperation equity raise of $122M after explicitly promising debt-first financing, suggesting either credit markets have shut them out or G2's economics have deteriorated badly. Yes, they posted record Q3 sales of $210M, but that headline masks a $50M+ contract blow-up they're trying to bury and cash generation so poor they couldn't wait for debt markets. The binding constraint is crystal clear: they need non-FEOC cells for all of 2026 but won't quantify what they've actually secured, making next year a total black box. Most revealing quote: 'We initially intended to focus on raising debt prior to an equity tranche.' My view changes if they announce actual contracted cell volumes for 2026 or secure committed debt financing for G2.