TransDigm Group (TDG)

The sleeper story is TransDigm's PMA empire building - spending $2.2B to acquire retaliation capability against companies PMA-ing their parts, though management won't admit the strategic rationale. The obvious headline is strong Q1 results, but the binding constraint is actually commercial aftermarket share erosion, with growth 5-6 points below market despite strong underlying fundamentals. Most revealing quote: When asked about PMA strategy, Lisman deflected with 'We bought these businesses because we think they're fundamentally good businesses on which we can make a 20% IRR' - classic TDG non-answer when the real strategy is defensive. My view changes if they can demonstrate the aftermarket gap is purely temporary distribution lumpiness rather than structural share loss, and if the PMA acquisitions actually achieve the margin expansion they're not modeling.