| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | July 28, 2026 | 8/12 | 3 medium, 2 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'26 | April 28, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 high, 5 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | January 27, 2026 | 6/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | October 29, 2025 | 6/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | July 29, 2025 | 5/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags | 3 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | April 29, 2025 | 5/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 4 low flags | 3 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'25 | January 21, 2025 | 5/12 | 3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'25 | October 22, 2024 | 4/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'24 | July 23, 2024 | 8/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | Delivered | The majority will probably go to share buyback... we are active already today in the market, and we will probably do more in the next few quarters. Management confirmed a higher level of buyback activity this quarter versus the prior quarter, with intent to continue. |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | We still have about $400 million of the convertible that is open, but we will probably address this quarter or next. $300 million was retired in the June quarter, with the remaining convertible balance targeted for September retirement, consistent with the guided window. |
| Q4'26 | Pending | Mosaic 5... with qualification shipments targeted for late calendar 2027. Timeline reiterated unchanged this quarter. |
| Q4'26 | Pending | We expect Mosaic 4 to represent a majority of our Hammer exabyte shipments exiting calendar 2026. Deadline (exit calendar 2026) has not arrived; company reiterated an interim 50% HAMR-on-Mozaic4 target for the same date. |
| Q4'26 | Pending | Significantly increase our annual revenue growth target... to a minimum of 20% over the next few years. Multi-year target, period not yet ended; FY27 guide of growth 'outpacing' FY26 is directionally consistent but not a conclusive test of the 20%+ floor. |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | We expect capital expenditure for fiscal year 2026 to be inside our target range of 4% to 6% of revenue. Full-year FY26 CapEx came in at 4.7% of revenue, within the stated range. |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | Non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $295 million. Actual non-GAAP OpEx was $293 million, essentially in line. |
| Q4'26 | Exceeded | Non-GAAP EPS is expected to be $5, plus or minus 20 cents. Actual non-GAAP EPS was $5.71, well above the high end of guidance. |
| Q4'26 | Exceeded | We expect June quarter revenue to be in the range of $3.45 billion, plus or minus $100 million. Actual June quarter revenue came in at $3.6 billion, above the high end of the guided range. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | HAMR crossover by end of calendar 2026 No update on timeline, appears on track |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Continue to evaluate opportunities to further reduce debt Retired $641M in Q3, exceeding the $500M from Q2 |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Capital expenditures inside 4-6% target range for fiscal 2026 Currently at 4%, tracking well |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Expect to deliver sequential improvement throughout calendar 2026 Q3 delivered, but full year commitment remains to be proven |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Mozaic 4 qualifications progressing well with shipments later this quarter Started revenue shipments in late March, technically delivered |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Complete qualification with remaining 2 cloud customers in current quarter Reiterated they remain on track for Q4 completion |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Start Mozaic 4 qualification with second major CSP Claims 'multiple CSPs' qualifying but no specifics |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Operating margin expansion to around 30% Hit 31.9%, well above target |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | December quarter revenue $2.7B ± $100M Delivered $2.83B, above midpoint |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Maintain 4-6% CapEx as percentage of revenue At 4.1% of revenue, maintaining discipline |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Free cash flow expansion in December quarter FCF grew 42% to $607M, strongest in 8 years |
| Q2'26 | Pending | 50% exabyte crossover on HAMR in second half of calendar 2026 Conspicuously absent from this call; appears to be slipping |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Qualify remaining 3 global CSPs within first half of calendar 2026 On track per management but only mentions U.S. CSPs qualified so far |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Capital discipline with 4-6% of revenue CapEx $105M was 4% of revenue, at low end of range |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Mozaic 4+ qualification start with CSP Started qualification with second major CSP as promised |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Operating margin expansion to mid-to-high 20s in Q1 Hit 29%, exceeded guidance |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Free cash flow expansion in H2 calendar 2025 Q1 was flat at $427M, needs December improvement to deliver |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Resume share repurchases in Q1 2026 Only deployed $29M at average price of $187, token effort |
| Q1'26 | Pending | 50% exabyte crossover on HAMR in H2 calendar 2026 Reiterated same timeline, no acceleration despite better qualification progress |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Three major CSPs qualified on Mozaic by Q4 2025 Actually hit 5 CSPs qualified, ahead of schedule |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Further debt reduction in coming quarters Only reduced debt by $150M vs $536M in Q3. Pace slowed dramatically. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continue to maintain capital discipline CapEx at 3% of revenue, within their discipline framework. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Expect minimal direct impact from tariff policies Confirmed minimal Q4 impact, though hedged heavily on future. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Free cash flow generation to improve sequentially for rest of calendar year FCF nearly doubled from $216M to $425M. |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Operational issues have been fixed No confirmation that Q3 supply constraints are resolved. Conspicuous silence. |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Second major CSP qualification approaching conclusion Still not qualified in Q4. They pushed the language to 'by mid-calendar 2026.' |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Meeting build-to-order commitments despite supply constraints Claims they're meeting commitments but can't verify without customer confirmation |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Continue debt reduction in coming quarters Retired $536M in Q3, net leverage down to 2.1x |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Maintain capital discipline at low end of 4-6% range CapEx at 3% of revenue fiscal YTD |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Free cash flow to improve sequentially through fiscal year Q3 FCF of $216M up from $150M in Q2 |
| Q3'25 | Pending | HAMR qualifications setting foundation for volume ramp in H2 CY2025 Pushed out from original H1 CY2025 timeline |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Supply issue resolved and limited to March quarter only Claimed fixed but Q4 guide doesn't show expected snapback |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Continue to see positive demand trends globally Demand strong but supply constraints preventing full capture |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Further reduction in net leverage ratio in coming quarters Reduced from 3.2x to 2.5x, meaningful deleveraging |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Maintain capital discipline with CapEx at 4-6% of revenue Held at 4% despite capacity constraints, maintaining discipline |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Free cash flow to improve in December quarter and through rest of fiscal year FCF improved to $150M from $27M, but still weak conversion |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Lead CSP qualification progressing well Completed qualification and started ramping, actually delivered for once |
| Q2'25 | Missed | HAMR shipment and revenue ramp across broader base points to mid-calendar 2025 Pushed to 'second half of calendar 2025', another quarter delay |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | Maintain capital discipline with CapEx at low-end of 4-6% range $68M represents ~3.1% of revenue, below the low end |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Launch new HAMR qualifications this quarter with multiple cloud customers Claims 'HAMR qualification drives are now in the hands of multiple global cloud and enterprise customers' |
| Q1'25 | Exceeded | Continue ramping 28TB PMR platform drives in high volume Became second-highest revenue product, over 20% of nearline revenue |
| Q1'25 | Exceeded | Non-GAAP operating margin in high-teens percentage range Delivered 20.4%, beating guidance by ~200bps |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | Free cash flow at or slightly above breakeven in September quarter $27M technically meets 'above breakeven' but far below normalized levels |
| Q1'25 | Missed | Complete HAMR qualification with lead CSP to begin shipping revenue units in September quarter Still in 'progressing well' phase, revenue shipments pushed to later quarters |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Maintain CapEx at 4-6% of revenue FY24 at $254M = 3.8% of revenue, below target range. |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | 24-28TB PMR qualification with most global cloud and enterprise Multiple customers qualified, volume ramp underway as promised. |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Underutilization costs to abate in second half of calendar year On track: dropped from $43M to $20M, guiding to minimal in FY25. |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Return to 30% gross margin in calendar 2024 Hit 30.9% in Q4, ahead of schedule. HDD margins above 31%. |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Ship few hundred thousand HAMR drives in June quarter Only shipped 'small volume', likely under 100k units based on revenue impact. |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Complete first large CSP HAMR qualification in June quarter Pushed to September due to 'mechanical component' issue. Third delay on this qualification. |
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