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Management credibility scorecard

Simmons First National (SFNC)

4 quarters tracked (Q4'25 to Q3'26) · latest call October 16, 2026
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50%
Kept of 2 resolved - limited history
1
Kept or exceeded
1
Missed
13
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · diluter

For context on Simmons Bank's small-business lending footprint, see its SBA lending profile on US Lender Metrics, including approval volume, loan sizes and industry mix. SBA approvals are not the same as funded loans or recognized revenue; the profile states its reporting period.

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q3'26October 16, 20269/122 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags00Call sheet →
Q2'26July 17, 20269/123 medium, 5 low flags01Call sheet →
Q1'26April 17, 20268/121 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags00Call sheet →
Q4'25January 21, 202610/123 medium, 4 low flags10Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q3'26PendingSquare footage reduction target of 15% cumulative (at 8.5% as of Q2)
Ongoing, no stated completion deadline; not addressed in percentage terms this quarter. Management instead disclosed a new absolute metric, 26 branch closures, without reconciling it to the prior percentage framework.
Q3'26PendingFY2026 net charge-offs of approximately 25bps, tracking below through 1H
Full year not complete; the metric was not repeated or updated anywhere in the Q3 call, so the actual is not stated on this call.
Q3'26PendingFY2026 operating leverage of 5%+, expected to exceed
Full year not complete; management reiterated strong confidence ('blow that one out of the park') without a new specific number.
Q3'26PendingFY2026 expense growth of 2%-3%, expected to beat
Full year not complete; guidance was characterized more favorably this quarter as potentially 'flat to maybe even slightly down' for Q4, a positive revision rather than a final delivered/missed outcome.
Q3'26PendingFY2026 NII growth of 9%-11%, comfortable at top end as of Q2
Full year not yet complete; management reaffirmed confidence at the high end this quarter, a continuation, not a final resolution.
Q3'26PendingFY2026 loan growth of low-to-mid single digits, ~7% annualized run-rate as of mid-year
Full-year 2026 period has not ended. Management expressed reduced near-term confidence this quarter, a revision in tone rather than a resolution; no verifiable management-attributed actual full-year figure exists yet.
Q2'26MissedConstruction loan relationship 'should be able to move expeditiously toward resolution'
A full quarter later, management now says 'timing's difficult to predict right now' and 'I'm just not sure as I sit here', a clear reversal of the prior expeditious-resolution expectation.
Q2'26PendingDeposit repricing tailwinds described as waning industry-wide but 'still some incremental benefit from a cost side' expected going forward
Consistent with timeline: management now says 'there's probably one more quarter of potential benefit' remains, tracking the general trajectory described in Q1.
Q2'26PendingFY2026 operating leverage target of 5%+
Not yet year-end. Management now says it expects to exceed the target, an upward revision, not a delivery.
Q2'26PendingFY2026 NII growth guide of 9-11%, with confidence 'at the top end of that range'
Fiscal year not complete. Current call reaffirms comfort at the top end of the range, a positive revision in tone but not a resolution.
Q1'26PendingCEO's FY26 NIM outlook described as 'relatively stable' with back-book and deposit-beta tailwinds offsetting rate cuts
Current quarter CEO describes NIM as continuing to 'grind higher' on the same structural tailwinds, consistent with or better than the prior 'stable' framing, but the full-year outcome is not yet determined.
Q1'26PendingROA run-rate target of 'mid-1 teens' heading into 2026
Not restated this quarter in any form; actual Q1 ROA was not stated on the call, so the metric cannot be scored against the target this period.
Q1'26PendingFY26 loan growth guide: low-to-mid single-digit growth
Q1 ran at ~10% annualized per management's own reference, well above the full-year guide, but management explicitly declined to raise guidance and called the quarter non-representative; full year not yet complete.
Q4'25Pending1 year from now, I fully expect the media headlines to read something like this. Simmons Bank earnings up $650 million from the previous year.
This was an undated, forward-looking full-year earnings prediction made on the Q3 2025 call; the Q4 2025 call does not state a comparable full-year net income dollar figure, so this remains pending and the specific $650 million actual was not addressed on this call.
Q4'25DeliveredOur succession plan is firmly established, and I'm really optimistic about the future opportunities for Simmons.
Succession completed; the Q4 call roster confirms Jay Brogdon now holds the President and CEO title, with George Makris no longer on the call.
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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