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Call sheet · Q3'26

Micron Technology (MU)

Q3'26 earnings call · held June 24, 2026 · compared with the Q2'26 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story isn't the 85% margins or record revenue; it's that Micron just locked in contractual price floors guaranteeing 64%+ gross margins through 2030, essentially buying five years of margin insurance that the Street hasn't valued. Yes, $50B quarterly revenue is mind-blowing, but the binding constraint is management admitting they have 'no line of sight' to supply catching demand, and their own HBM success is cannibalizing their higher-margin DDR5 capacity. The most revealing quote: 'strategically choosing [HBM share] to be close to our DRAM share', translation: HBM is a margin-dilutive obligation, not an opportunity. My view changes if hyperscaler CapEx guidance drops 20% or if Samsung announces 2x capacity additions.

The 30-second version

  • SCAs convert 40% of revenue to price floors that guarantee 'well above peak' gross margins through 2030
  • 84.9% gross margin blowout masks a critical warning: floor prices imply 64% minimum future margins
  • HBM4 revenue already $1B but margins still dilutive; management stopped disclosing HBM share entirely

What changed this quarter

MetricQ2'26Q3'26Change
Revenue$23.9B (+196% YoY)$41.5B (+346% YoY)+74% QoQ acceleration
EPS$12.20 (+682% YoY)$25.11 (no YoY comp)+106% QoQ explosion
Gross Margin75.0%84.9%+990bps expansion
Operating Income$16.5B$33.7B+104% QoQ surge
Free Cash Flow$6.9B (record)$18.3B (new record)+165% QoQ, beat own record
DRAM Revenue$18.8B$31.3B+67% QoQ on 60%+ pricing
NAND Revenue$5.0B$9.9B+99% QoQ on 80%+ pricing
Data Center SSD RevenueDoubled sequentially$5B+ (SLC run rate)Another doubling implied
HBM RevenueNot disclosed>$1B HBM4 aloneFirst HBM4 revenue disclosure
Cash & Investments$16.7B$30.2B+81% QoQ build

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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