Earnings Call Intelligence Subscribe
Home › Call Sheets › MU › Q4'26
Call sheet · Q4'26

Micron Technology (MU)

Q4'26 earnings call · held September 30, 2026 · compared with the Q3'26 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story isn't the record quarter, it's that Q1 FY27 gross margin is guided DOWN sequentially to 86.25% from 87%, and management's own words explain why: incentive comp got capitalized into Q4 inventory and will hit COGS as roughly $1 billion of cost next quarter. The obvious headline, record revenue, record EPS, tighter-for-longer supply, is real, but the binding constraint has shifted from demand to construction lead time, with management explicitly noting CapEx is skewing to construction because clean rooms, not chip demand or even equipment, are now the gating factor. The line that should worry the desk most: 'we do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance', repeated verbatim from last quarter, meaning Micron itself can't model its own normalization risk two quarters running. My view changes if Q2 FY27 gross margin snaps back above 87% as promised (confirming the comp/inventory issue was transitory) and if management finally attaches a concrete buyback dollar figure after December 9, rather than repeating the same 'over time, 100%' boilerplate a third consecutive quarter.

The 30-second version

  • Q1 gross margin guide is actually DOWN sequentially, and the reason is a quiet accounting tell
  • Headline: blowout quarter, records everywhere. Reality: the binding constraint is construction lead time, not demand or even equipment
  • Capital return language hasn't moved an inch despite cash nearly 2.5x bigger, and management dodged two direct asks

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'26Q4'26Change
Revenue$41.5B, +346% YoY$54.2B, +379% YoY+31% QoQ acceleration
Non-GAAP EPS$25.11$33.42, +33% QoQ+33% sequential
Gross Margin84.9%, +10pp QoQ87%, +210bps QoQdecelerating expansion rate
DRAM Revenue$31.3B, 76% of total$39.8B, 73% of total+27% QoQ but mix share slipping
NAND Revenue$9.9B, 24% of total$14.1B, 26% of total+42% QoQ, outgrowing DRAM
Operating Cash Flow$25.4B$44B+73% QoQ
CapEx$7.1B$10.8B+52% QoQ ramp
Free Cash Flow$18.3B, record at the time$33.2B+81% QoQ
Days of Inventory120 days129 days, +9 daysrising despite 'extremely tight' claim
Cash & Investments$30.2B$73.5B+143% QoQ buildup, no buyback acceleration announced

Accountability tracked

9 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Read the full MU Q4'26 report Subscribe
This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

Follow what management promises next

Get free previews of our earnings-call research: the key changes, management scores, and questions worth investigating. Subscribe for full call sheets and deeper analysis.

Subscriptions are managed by Substack. If the form does not load, subscribe directly. Or follow the RSS feed.