| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 20, 2026 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 21, 2026 | 5/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 0 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 16, 2026 | 9/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 20, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 5 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | Assume a run rate of $300 million a quarter in buybacks for the back half of 2026 Q3 actual repurchase was $320M, consistent with the implied pace; full H2 period (including Q4) not yet complete. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Continue to expect to repurchase at least $1.3 billion of shares for the year FY2026 not complete; ~$250M remains against the $1.3B target with Q4 to go. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Average loans to increase 4% to 5%, average commercial loans 8% to 10% for 2026 FY2026 not complete. Current guide raised to ~5% average loans and ~10% commercial, a favorable revision. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Full year expense growth guide of 3% to 4% FY2026 not complete. This quarter narrowed language to '~4%', effectively the top of the prior range. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Full year net charge-offs expected in the 40-45bps range FY2026 not complete. Guide was tightened/lowered to 37-39bps this quarter, a favorable revision. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Expect to exit the year with NIM in the range of 3.0% to 3.05% FY2026 not complete. Guide revised down to 'approximately 3%' this quarter, a downward revision of the prior range, not yet a miss since the period hasn't ended. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Expect $3 billion client deposit growth in second half of 2026 H2 2026 not yet complete at this call. Management says Q3 alone delivered $2.8B and they have 'nearly achieved' the full $3B target with Q4 still to come; tracking ahead of plan but not formally closed. |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Expect third quarter investment banking fees to be up 20%+ quarter-over-quarter IB and debt placement fees came in at $214M, +27% sequential, beating the prior quarter's guide. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Expense growth of 3-4% for full year Reiterated despite higher incentive comp pressures |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Average commercial loan growth of 6-8% for 2026 Raised to 8-10% but quality deteriorating with tighter spreads |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Repurchase at least $1.3 billion shares in 2026 On track with $340M in Q2, raised from $1.2B prior guide |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Mid-single digit investment banking fee growth for full year Still claiming achievable despite Q2 miss and weak Q3 guide |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Generate 15% ROTCE by end of 2027 Reiterated but with 'even greater confidence' qualifier suggesting concern |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Exit year with NIM of approximately 3.05% Walked back to 3.0-3.05% range after only 2bp expansion in Q2 |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Expense growth of 3-4% in 2026 Reiterated guidance despite $1B technology investment |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Net interest income growth of 8-10% in 2026 Raised to 9-10% based on strong Q1 performance |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Share repurchases of at least $300M per quarter Bought $400M in Q1, raised full-year target to $1.3B |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Commercial loan growth of about 5% in 2026 Now guiding 6-8% growth, raised from previous 5% target |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Investment banking fee growth of about 5% in 2026 Q1 was strong but guiding Q2 down, full-year target at risk |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Net interest margin above 2.75%-2.8% in Q4 2025 Hit 2.82% in Q4, now targeting 3%+ by year-end 2026 |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Return on tangible common equity of 15%+ by year-end 2027 At 13%+ in Q1, making progress but still 200+ bps to go |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Increase frontline staff by approximately 10% Achieved just over 9%, with investment banking at only 5% vs 10% target |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Full-year expenses approximately 4% Achieved 4.6% expense growth within targeted range |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Fourth quarter share repurchases of approximately $100M Executed $200M, double the commitment at $18 average price |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Fee growth between 5-6%, toward higher end assuming M&A pickup Delivered 7.5% fee growth despite limited M&A activity |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Full-year net interest income growth of about 22% Achieved 23% growth, at high end of 20-22% guidance range |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Fourth quarter investment banking fees similar to record Q4 2024 level (~$220M) Delivered $243M, 10% above target, driven by debt capital markets |
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