| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 13, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 14, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 14, 2026 | 11/12 | 1 medium, 6 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 13, 2026 | 10/12 | 4 medium, 4 low flags | 3 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | Through-the-cycle goal to deploy capital at a 17% return Multi-year target reaffirmed this quarter as the goal for excess capital redeployment, no new deadline attached. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Full-year 2026 expense outlook of ~$107.5B Year not yet ended; Q4 expense guide of ~$27.5B was given but no explicit full-year actual-to-date reconciliation was provided on this call. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Full-year 2026 NII guide of ~$105.5B total, ~$96.5B ex-markets Year not yet ended; Q4 NII guide of ~$28B total implies the full-year path is roughly intact but actual full-year NII was not independently confirmed on this call. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Full-year 2026 card net charge-off rate guided to ~3.2% Full year not yet ended; reaffirmed at ~3.2% this quarter with no change. Consistent so far, actual not yet stated for the full year. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Smart cash tool: 'Yes. You'll see something this year.' Confirmed live 'as of the last couple weeks' but explicitly still a 'targeted pilot' with no scale metrics disclosed. Technically on time, substantively unproven. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Smart cash tool testing this year Still described as 'not even live yet' |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Markets NII of about $8B Revised up to $9B despite rate sensitivity |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Low to mid-single digit consumer deposit growth Tracking to low single digits currently |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Card NCO rate of approximately 3.4% Improved to 3.2% on better credit |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Expense outlook of about $105B Increased to $107.5B due to volume-related costs |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | NII ex-Markets of about $95B for 2026 Raised to $96.5B this quarter |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continued investment in long-term growth initiatives (from Q4) Expenses up 14% YoY with significant front office hiring and technology investment |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Strong client engagement and deal activity in 2026 (from Q4) IB fees up 28% YoY, strong M&A and equity underwriting performance |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Consumer deposits expected low to mid-single digits growth (from Q4) Q1 showed 2% growth, early in year to assess full-year trend |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | 2026 adjusted expense about $105B (from Q4) Maintained despite strong Q1 revenue performance |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Card net charge-off rate approximately 3.4% (from Q4) Reaffirmed same guidance |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | NII ex Markets about $95B for 2026 (from Q4) Maintained guidance despite rate curve changes |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Robust franchise growth across CCB metrics 1.7M new checking accounts exceeded expectations, best Sapphire year ever |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Strong pipeline and optimistic IB outlook Delivered strong Q3 results and maintained optimistic 2026 outlook |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Continued expense discipline and efficiency focus Abandoned constraint language, now guiding to $105B+ vs prior discipline messaging |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Consumer deposit growth inflection in 2026 Timeline pushed out, now only expecting 'modest' growth instead of 6% |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | 2025 card net charge-off rate approximately 3.3% Maintained guidance and delivered on credit expectations |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Fourth quarter NII ex-markets approximately $23.5 billion Q4 results not yet reported, this was guidance |
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