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Call sheet · Q4'25

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

Q4'25 earnings call · held January 13, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
4 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is stablecoin threat to deposit franchise: management cited $6.6 trillion industry risk and is lobbying frantically, suggesting this is more urgent than market realizes. Credit card rate caps aren't political theater - Dimon's 'dramatic and traumatic' language shows genuine existential fear. The binding constraint is now expense discipline: they've abandoned 'living within means' language for 'structural optimism' spending $105B+ in 2026. Most revealing quote: 'When you see one cockroach, there are probably more' on wholesale credit, signaling management expects more NBFI blowups. My view changes if they restore expense discipline guidance or if stablecoin regulation gets resolved favorably.

The 30-second version

  • Stablecoin interest loophole could cost JPM billions in deposits - and management is openly worried
  • Credit card interest rate cap threat isn't political posturing - it's existential for card business
  • Apple Card integration will cost more and take longer than the $30B RWA suggests

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Net Income$12.9B (Q3 2025)$13.0B (Q4 2025)Flat quarter-over-quarter
EPS$4.37 (Q3 2025)$4.63 (Q4 2025)+$0.26 beat
Revenue$47.1B (Q3 2025)$46.8B (Q4 2025)-$0.3B sequential decline
ROTCE20% (Q3 2025)18% (Q4 2025)-200 bps degradation
CET1 Ratio14.8% (Q3 2025)14.5% (Q4 2025)-30 bps consumption
NII ex-Markets$22.9B (Q3 2025 implied)$23.5B (Q4 2025 guidance)+$600M sequential
Card Net Charge-offs3.3% expected (Q3 2025)3.4% expected (2026)+10 bps deterioration
Expenses$24.3B (Q3 2025)$24.0B (Q4 2025)-$300M sequential improvement
Consumer Deposit GrowthFlat (Q3 2025)Modest growth expected (2026)Slight improvement projected
RWA GrowthHigh growth (Q3 2025)$133B from Apple CardMassive single-quarter jump

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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