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Call sheet · Q2'26

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

Q2'26 earnings call · held July 14, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
2 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is the Markets NII composition shift worth $150M in pure bottom line profit that nobody will catch because they're mesmerized by the 86% equities spike. Yes, trading crushed it, but Jeremy admits it's 'hard to imagine that being repeated,' yet they're deploying another $103B in RWA anyway. The binding constraint is G-SIB surcharge capacity, not client demand: they're running out of room to grow the balance sheet profitably. Most revealing quote: Jamie saying 'It's getting close to as good as it gets.' My view changes if Q3 equities revenue stays above 50% YoY growth, proving this wasn't just Korean market chaos and mega-IPO timing.

The 30-second version

  • Markets NII is the sleeper: guided UP despite higher rates, revealing balance sheet composition shifts worth $150M+ in pure bottom line
  • The 86% equities explosion looks unsustainable, but management's deploying $103B more RWA to milk it
  • Consumer deposits finally growing again (2% QoQ) but management's hedging hard on sustainability

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Revenue$50.5B (10% YoY)$56.7B (15% YoY)+500 bps YoY acceleration
EPS$5.94$6.14+3.4% sequential
Net Income$16.5B$16.9B+$400M sequential
Markets Revenue$23.4B$24.9B+27% YoY vs 19% prior quarter
Equities RevenueUp 17% YoYUp 86% YoY+69pp YoY growth acceleration
Fixed Income RevenueUp 21% YoYUp 6% YoY-15pp YoY deceleration
Investment Banking FeesUp 28% YoYUp 30% YoYStable high growth
CCB DepositsUp 2% QoQUp 2% QoQGrowth resumed after stagnation
New Checking Accounts450K+500K++50K acceleration
NII ex-Markets Guide$95B$96.5B+$1.5B upgrade

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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