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Call sheet · Q1'25

ProPetro Holding (PUMP)

Q1'25 earnings call · held April 29, 2025 · compared with the Q4'24 call · management-credibility review
5/12
Disclosure score
3 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that PUMP just committed $230M to power generation equipment with zero binding contracts, only 75MW of non-binding LOIs, while their CFO mysteriously vanished. The market sees Q1 recovery with 12% sequential revenue growth, but that's masking a massive unhedged bet on a business pivot they can't seem to close deals for. The binding constraint isn't demand, it's their ability to actually convert Pro Power interest into contracts; Sam Sledge admitted 'we don't have any contracts in place today.' My view changes if they announce a binding Pro Power contract with real economics or explain why their CFO disappeared.

The 30-second version

  • Pro Power contracts mysteriously MIA despite 220MW on order
  • Fleet count guide down but they're spinning it as discipline
  • CFO vanished without explanation, just 'Interim Principal Financial Officer'

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'24Q1'25Change
Revenue$321M (-11% YoY)$359M (+12% QoQ)+12% sequential recovery
Net Income-$17M loss$10M profitSwung to profit
Adjusted EBITDA$53M (16.5% margin)$73M (20.3% margin)+380 bps margin expansion
Operating Cash FlowNot disclosed$55MNew disclosure
Free Cash Flow$118M full year 2024$22M quarterlyRun rate down 25% from 2024 average
CapEx Incurred$25M$39M+56% increase QoQ
2025 CapEx Guide$300-400M midpoint $350M$295-345M midpoint $320M-9% guide cut at midpoint
Active Frac Fleets14 fleets Q414-15 fleets Q1Stable to up
Q2 Fleet Guidance14-15 expected for Q113-14 for Q2-1 fleet at midpoint
Contracted HorsepowerAlmost 50% under contract50% under long-term contractsNo progress

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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