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Call sheet · Q2'26

Intuit (INTU)

Q2'26 earnings call · held February 26, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
3/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 5 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is management accidentally revealing that AI+HI test results show customers will pay meaningfully more for combined tech/human service, fundamentally changing the pricing power narrative, but they're not ready to roll it out at scale yet. The headline 17% growth is solid but masks critical deterioration in Mailchimp (timeline slipped 6+ months) and QuickBooks Live deceleration (61% to 50%), while desktop's 10% growth this quarter practically guarantees a second-half collapse given unchanged full-year guidance. The binding constraint is their go-to-market capacity: they're adding 30% more sales heads because they can't scale without humans, despite all the AI efficiency talk. Most revealing quote: 'All options are on the table' for Mailchimp, which is banker-speak for potential divestiture. My view changes if Mailchimp returns to growth in FY26 or if they provide specific AI monetization metrics next quarter.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper: AI+HI test results show customers willing to pay significantly MORE for combined tech/human experience
  • Headline 17% growth masks Mailchimp deterioration: now pushed to 'beyond fiscal 2026' for double-digit growth
  • 600 tax centers generating 5.1M visits through Feb 6 vs 4.2M all of last season

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Total Revenue$3.9B (18% YoY)$4.7B (17% YoY)-100 bps deceleration
GAAP Operating Income$534M (97% YoY)$855M (44% YoY)Margin expansion but growth rate halved
Non-GAAP EPS$3.34 (34% YoY)$4.15 (25% YoY)-900 bps deceleration
GBSG Revenue18% YoY18% YoYFlat growth rate
Online Ecosystem Revenue21% YoY21% YoYStable but no acceleration
QBO Advanced + IES Revenue~40% YoY~40% YoYMid-market momentum maintained
QuickBooks Live Growth61% YoY50% YoY-1100 bps deceleration
Total Online Payment Volume29% YoY29% YoYUnchanged but bill pay doing heavy lifting
TurboTax Revenue27% YoY12% YoY-1500 bps deceleration as expected seasonally
Credit Karma Revenue15% YoY23% YoY+800 bps acceleration

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Read the full INTU Q2'26 report Subscribe
This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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