| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | August 5, 2026 | 4/12 | 4 medium, 3 low flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'26 | April 30, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 6 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | January 29, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | October 30, 2025 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 5 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | July 30, 2025 | 10/12 | 1 high, 2 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | April 30, 2025 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'25 | January 29, 2025 | 4/12 | 3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'25 | October 24, 2024 | 10/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'24 | July 31, 2024 | 8/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | Pending | "We will ship 44TB HAMR in the first half of calendar year 2027" No evidence of shipments yet; Q4 only says "on track" without quantity. Resolution pending in H1 CY27. |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Maintain incremental gross margins above 50% Delivered 70-75% incremental margins for three straight quarters |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Monetize remaining SanDisk shares before February 2026 Monetized 5.8M shares, still have 1.7M remaining |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Deliver close to 4 million latest gen EPMR drives Delivered 4.1 million units, 17% above prior quarter |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Continue UltraSMR adoption beyond 50% nearline mix Now targeting 60% of total exabytes by FY27, major acceleration |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Operating expenses $380-390M range Came in at $397M but as percentage of revenue improved 40bps |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Start HAMR qualification in first half of calendar 2026 Actually pulled forward, started this month with one customer |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Expand qualification to up to 3 hyperscale customers through calendar 2026 One started, planning second 'imminently' |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Maintain gross margin improvement trajectory 46.1% vs 43.9% prior quarter, 220bps sequential beat |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Monetize remaining SanDisk shares before February 21, 2026 Still holding 7.5M shares, Kris says 'intention to monetize' before deadline |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Continue share repurchases under $2B authorization Executed $615M in Q2, total $1.3B used so far |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Ship 'well north of 3 million units' of current ePMR this quarter Shipped 3.5M units, targeting close to 4M next quarter |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Begin next-gen ePMR qualification in Q1 calendar 2026 Started this month as promised |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Start HAMR qualification in first half of calendar 2026 Started in January 2026, pulled forward by ~5 months |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Incremental gross margins of 65-75% Q1 delivered 75% but guiding to 65% for Q2, now targeting 50% long-term |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Maintain 1-1.5x net leverage ratio At just below 1x currently |
| Q1'26 | Pending | $2B buyback program Executed $553M in Q1, significant acceleration from $149M in Q4 |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continue to see exabyte growth trending toward 23% CAGR Reiterated 23% trend, though actual growth was 23% YoY this quarter |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Next-gen ePMR qualification in first half CY26 Accelerated to Q1 CY26 specifically |
| Q1'26 | Pending | HAMR ramp in first half of calendar 2027 Pulled qualification forward 6 months but ramp timeline unchanged |
| Q4'25 | Pending | 28TB/36TB ePMR in 'next few months' Updated to 'first half of calendar 2026', slight timeline shift |
| Q4'25 | Pending | HAMR qualification H2 CY2026, ramp H1 CY2027 Reiterated timeline, claiming ahead of schedule |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Q4 gross margin 40-41% Delivered 41.3%, above range |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Q4 revenue of $2.45B +/- $150M Delivered $2.6B, beat midpoint by $150M |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Initiate quarterly dividend of $0.10 Initiated as promised, already paid in Q4 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Get net leverage to 1.0-1.5x range Hit 1.0x, achieved in 2 quarters versus 'less than 2 quarters' promise |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Achieve net leverage below 2x At 1.7x currently, targeting 1.0-1.5x range |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Complete Flash spin by February 21 Completed successfully; this was final earnings as combined company |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Maintain supply/demand balance So tight they can't even fulfill hypothetical double orders |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Deliver sequential gross margin improvement Promised 50bps, delivered 170bps improvement to 40.1% |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Complete 32TB/26TB qualifications in Q1 CY25 On track per management but no customer names provided |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Start HAMR qualification in 2H CY2026 Reiterated timeline but no acceleration despite 'encouraging' feedback |
| Q2'25 | Missed | PC and consumer recovery through calendar 2025 Pushed recovery out by 'a couple of quarters' from original timeline. |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Continue HDD margin expansion with new products Up 50bps to record 38.6% as promised. |
| Q2'25 | Missed | Flash gross margin to remain above long-term target Collapsed to 32.5% with further deterioration guided. |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Complete separation on schedule by end of fiscal Q2 On track for February 21st distribution date. |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Maintain disciplined capital spending in Flash Only $68M cash capex, maintaining low spend as promised. |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Enterprise SSD mix to comprise over 15% of portfolio bit shipments in FY2025 Completely stopped disclosing the metric this quarter. Bad sign. |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | 32TB UltraSMR drive sampling and qualification Launched in Q1, now in customer qualification |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | HDD gross margins to go higher Hit 38.1% record gross margin, up 200 bps sequentially |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Recovery in Flash end markets through calendar 2025 Consumer still weak, PC pushed out, but enterprise SSD exceeding |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | Continued momentum in data center HDD Record 141 EB nearline shipments, revenue up 10% sequentially |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Separation expected around time of December quarter earnings Soft-spin complete but financing not started yet, timeline intact but tight |
| Q1'25 | Exceeded | Enterprise SSDs to represent double-digit percent share in portfolio mix Already at 15% in Q1, targeting 15-20% for full year |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Over half of FY25 exabytes to be SMR-based Currently at 50% in Q4, on track |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Flash gross margin improvement for 4 consecutive quarters Achieved with 36.5% in Q4 |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Separation in second half of calendar year Timeline pushed to 'end of calendar year' |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Enterprise SSD growth throughout calendar 2024 Some growth but management walking back enthusiasm |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Sequential growth throughout fiscal year in HDD HDD revenue grew every quarter as promised |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Flat bit shipments in Q4 Guided flat, delivered -7% sequential decline |
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