| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 15, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 16, 2026 | 6/12 | No flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 16, 2026 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | 2026-01-15 | 11/12 | 2 medium, 6 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | A14 risk production 2027, volume production 2028 Timeline reaffirmed unchanged this quarter with no slippage disclosed. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Additional $100B Arizona investment, 'several more semiconductor logical wafer plants' Multi-year build-out; this quarter disclosed concrete progress - Arizona fab 2 construction complete, volume production pulled forward to Q3 2027. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | CapEx 2026-2028 to be 'even more significantly higher than the past three years' Multi-year commitment, period not ended; reaffirmed with identical language this quarter, no new numeric detail provided. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | 2026 CapEx budget of $60-64B Fiscal year ongoing; budget was reiterated unchanged this quarter, but quarterly pacing ($13.8B in Q3 vs $15.7B in Q2) raises questions about back-half loading needed to hit the range. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | FY2026 revenue growth guidance of 'slightly above 40%' YoY Fiscal year has not ended; management revised the target upward to ~44% this quarter, which is a positive revision, not a delivery or miss. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Q3 2026 gross margin guidance of 65-67% Actual Q3 gross margin was 66.4%, within the guided range. |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Q3 2026 revenue guidance of $44.6-45.8B Actual Q3 revenue came in at $46.7B, above the high end of guidance. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Japan Fab 1 volume production in late 2024 JASM Fab 1 started volume production late 2024 with very good yield |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | AI accelerator revenue mid-to-high 50s CAGR 2024-2029 Reconfirmed and emphasized 'towards higher 50s' in this call |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Long-term gross margins of 56% and higher through cycle Currently running 66.2% gross margins, well above long-term target |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Arizona Fab 1 high-volume production in 4Q 2024 Successfully entered HVM in Q4 2024, now almost equal yield to Taiwan |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | N2 entering high-volume manufacturing in 4Q 2025 N2 successfully entered HVM Q4 2025 at both Hsinchu and Kaohsiung with good yield |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | 2026 revenue to increase by close to 30% in U.S. dollar terms Upgraded to 'above 30%' guidance, delivering ahead of original conservative estimate |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Overseas fab dilution 2-3% in 2025 Actual dilution 1-2% vs guided 2-3%, better than expected |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Arizona first fab high-volume production in 4Q 2024 Confirmed successful entry into high-volume production |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | N2 volume production by late 2025 Confirmed N2 entered high-volume production Q4 2025 |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Full year 2025 gross margin improvement Reached 59.9% vs previous year, exceeded expectations |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | 2025 CapEx between $38-42B Came in at $40.9B, within guided range |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | 2025 revenue increase by close to mid-30s percent Delivered 35.9% growth vs mid-30s guidance |
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