Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)

The market is missing the **CPU resurgence** that management quietly flagged as a new AI driver - it could accelerate 2‑nm utilization and force margin dilution earlier than expected. The headline of a 12% QoQ revenue rise is solid, but the **binding constraint is the 2‑nm ramp**: it will shave 3‑4 points off gross margin and is being funded by a $15‑16 bn quarterly capex surge, inflating inventory to 87 days. If the CPU‑related AI demand does not materialize, the extra spend could become a margin trap. My view changes if Q3 inventory days stay above 90 or if the Arizona build‑out timeline slips beyond H2‑2026.