Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call

Bottom line

TSMC beat its Q3 revenue guide and delivered gross margin within the promised range. The useful next test is how the $60-64B annual capital budget translates into delivered capacity. Q3 spending fell from Q2, but that alone cannot distinguish equipment or construction timing, project changes and demand changes. Compare full-year spending with the budget, management explanations for any variance, dated fab milestones and utilization. N2 annual capacity is expected to more than double in 2027; total-company capacity growth and post-2026 spending remain unquantified on this call.

The 30-second version

Lower quarterly CapEx makes spending timing the next test
Revenue beat the guide; the next capacity commitments are specific but incomplete
AI demand commentary strengthened without a replacement CAGR range

What changed this quarter

Metric	Q2'26	Q3'26	Change
Revenue (USD)	$40.2B, guided $44.6-45.8B for Q3	$46.7B, above high end of guide	Beat high end by ~$0.9B+, +16.2% QoQ
Gross Margin	67.7%, +150bps QoQ	66.4%, -130bps QoQ on 2nm ramp dilution	Margin give-back as 2nm ramps, in line with prior warning
Q4/Q3 Guidance	Q3 guide $44.6-45.8B, GM 65-67%	Q4 guide $52.3-54.3B (+14% QoQ), GM 65-67%	Guide steps up again, margin band held flat
FY2026 Revenue Growth Guide	'Slightly above 40%' YoY	Raised to ~44% YoY	Raised from slightly above 40% to approximately 44%; exact percentage-point increase is not specified
2026 CapEx Budget	$60-64B (raised from $52-56B)	$60-64B reiterated unchanged	Flat, no incremental raise this quarter
Quarterly CapEx (USD)	$15.7B in Q2	$13.8B in Q3	About 12% lower sequentially; spending timing requires follow-up
Cash From Operations (NT$)	783B	920B	+17.5% QoQ
AR Turnover Days	29 days, +3 days QoQ	28 days, -1 day QoQ	Improved, revenue outgrowing receivables
Inventory Days	87 days, +7 days QoQ on N2 ramp	82 days, -5 days QoQ on higher shipments	Five fewer days; does not establish an absolute inventory reduction
HPC % of Revenue	66% of revenue, +20% QoQ	68% of revenue, +22% QoQ	HPC share increased; HPC is broader than AI accelerators

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made3 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored

Inside the full report

The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)

The 30-second version

What changed this quarter

Accountability tracked

Follow what management promises next