| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 4, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 3 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 13, 2026 | 6/12 | 4 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 11, 2026 | 10/12 | 1 high, 2 medium, 3 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | November 10, 2025 | 9/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'25 | August 4, 2025 | 7/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'25 | May 14, 2025 | 6/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 1 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'24 | February 10, 2025 | 5/12 | 3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'24 | November 13, 2024 | 6/12 | 3 high, 4 medium flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'24 | July 24, 2024 | 3/12 | 3 high, 5 medium flags | 4 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Effective tax rate guided to 15%-18% going forward No tax rate was disclosed or discussed on this call; actual not stated on the call. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | SIFO capacity expected to grow 5x from the Q4-25 wafer revenue shipment base by the end of 2026 Deadline is end of 2026; this call reiterates a full ramp anticipated in Q4 2026 with full financial effect in Q2 2027, consistent with but not yet confirming the prior 5x target; actual not stated on the call. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Business model update expected "within the next quarter" per Russell's response to Cody Acree on raising the long-term model An updated 2028 model ($3.6B revenue / 33% net margin) was presented on this call. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | "We strongly reiterate our target of quarter over quarter revenue and margin growth throughout 2026." Revenue grew QoQ ($414M to $460M) and gross margin expanded (~27% implied to 30% reported), consistent with the QoQ growth target for this quarter; remains pending for the rest of 2026. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 2026 mid-range revenue guidance of $455 million, plus or minus 5% Actual Q2 revenue came in at $460M, above the stated $455M midpoint. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Q4: '$2.84B revenue model achievable by 2028' Model reiterated but 2026 start is concerning |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Q4: 'Full ownership of Fab 7 in 2026' Deal announced but not closed, awaiting METI approval |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Q4: '5x capacity growth by end of 2026' Reiterated the 5x target, execution risk remains high |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Q4: 'Over 70% of total SiPho capacity reserved through 2028' Confirmed with $290M prepayments and $1.3B in contracts |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Q4: 'Utilization and output to increase back in the second quarter' Fab 3 utilization actually decreased from 85% to 80%, will see if Q2 delivers |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Q4: 'We strongly reiterate quarter-over-quarter revenue and margin growth throughout 2026' Q1 revenue and margins both declined sequentially, breaking the promise immediately |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Quarter-over-quarter growth throughout 2025 Q1: $358M, Q2: $375M, Q3: $396M, Q4: $440M. Perfect execution |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | 300mm SiPho revenue in Q4 2025 Confirmed shipping 300mm prototypes with revenue contribution |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | First SiPho shipments from Fab 9 in Q4 Mentioned 'multiple thousands' shipping in Q4 as planned |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | 3x SiPho capacity by H2 2026 Now targeting 5x due to demand, upgrading their own target |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Q4 SiPho run rate exceeding $320M Achieved $380M annualized run rate ($95M quarterly) |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | SiPho revenue above $220M for 2025 Delivered $228M, beating their own target |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Q4 revenue of $440M midpoint Guided $440M +/-5% in Q3, delivered exactly $440M. Perfect execution |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Fab 2 Israel SiPho production in Q4'25 Pushed to Q1'26, three-month delay |
| Q3'25 | Pending | 300mm SiPho production in Q4 Reiterated expecting revenue in Q4 |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | San Antonio SiPho customer shipments in Q3 Shipped 'hundreds' in Q3 as promised |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Fab 2 Israel SiGe meaningful shipments in Q4'25 Still claiming on track for Q4 |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Silicon Photonics to more than double from 2024's $105M On track with >$220M target for 2025, Q3 already at ~$150M YTD |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Sequential quarter-over-quarter growth throughout 2025 Q1: $358M, Q2: $372M, Q3: $396M, tracking perfectly |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q3 revenue guidance of $395M +/- 5% Hit $396M, right at midpoint |
| Q2'25 | Missed | RF Mobile growth throughout the year Q1 described as 'lowest point' but no Q2 mobile metrics disclosed |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Machine vision sensor rebound in H2 Reaffirmed 20% H2 increase expectation |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Power Management rebound in 200mm high voltage Confirmed strong rebound in both 200mm and 300mm |
| Q2'25 | Pending | SiPho revenue doubling in 2025 from $105M base Now saying 'maybe higher than doubling', upgraded target |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Acceleration in second half Q3 guide of 6% growth shows acceleration beginning |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Sequential quarter-over-quarter growth throughout 2025 Q2 grew 4% over Q1, on track so far |
| Q1'25 | Pending | OLED prototypes to ship H2 2025 Timeline maintained but confidence seems lower |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Machine vision to show impact in H2 2025 Reaffirmed for second half revenue impact |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Year-over-year growth with sequential increases throughout 2025 Q1 achieved 9% YoY growth, Q2 guided for sequential increase |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | New Mexico fab to deliver successful prototypes and receive production POs Confirmed prototypes delivered and first PO received in Q4 |
| Q1'25 | Pending | Silicon photonics to double from 2024's $105M On track per management but Q1 number not disclosed |
| Q1'25 | Missed | Q1 2025 guidance of $385M midpoint Actual $358M came in 7% below midpoint guided |
| Q4'24 | Pending | 20% increase in Fab 3 utilization Still at 65-70% range, no evidence of improvement yet |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Begin production in Albuquerque in 2025 On track with first production PO received ahead of plan |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Machine vision growth in H2 2024 Russell admitted 'This has not happened but rather the imaging business remained stable' |
| Q4'24 | Pending | Agrate production revenue of 'couple tens of millions' in Q4 Mentioned as on track but not quantified in results |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Sequential quarterly revenue growth throughout 2024 Achieved 18% Q1 to Q4 growth as promised |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Q4 silicon photonics annualized run rate of over $150M Claimed 'at least hit the $150 million' but math suggests closer to $140M based on $105M full year |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Qualifying new capacity in New Mexico fab Customer prototypes taped out, qualification on track for 2025 |
| Q3'24 | Pending | Deliver first production revenue from Agrate in Q4 Committed to 'couple tens of millions' in Q4 |
| Q3'24 | Pending | Continued growth in Power IC through remainder of year Q3 at 17% of revenue vs 14% in Q2, tracking well |
| Q3'24 | Missed | Second half growth from machine vision customers Explicitly stated 'this has not happened' |
| Q3'24 | Exceeded | Silicon photonics to grow from $30M to above $80M in 2024 Now targeting $100M, 25% above original target |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Sequential quarterly revenue growth throughout 2024 Q3 achieved with $371M vs $351M in Q2, Q4 guided to $387M |
| Q2'24 | Missed | OpEx to remain flat despite revenue growth No OpEx disclosure this quarter, was $33.5M in Q1 |
| Q2'24 | Pending | Customer prototyping in Albuquerque H2 2024 Stated 'initial customer prototypes already taped out' but timeline pushed to 'probably first half 2025' for qualification |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | Power management Q1 as 'low point' with recovery thereafter Power IC revenue increased 60% Q1 to Q2 |
| Q2'24 | Pending | Agrate production ramp on track with planned schedule Claims on track for Q4 production, but no silicon shipped yet |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | Silicon Photonics to remain ~5% of revenue Maintained at approximately 5% despite absolute growth |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | Sequential quarterly revenue growth throughout 2024 Q2 achieved with $24M increase, maintaining commitment |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | Q2 revenue guidance of $350M +/- 5% Hit $351M, within upper half of guidance range |
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