| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 5, 2026 | 8/12 | 4 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 5, 2026 | 10/12 | 6 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 26, 2026 | 8/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | November 5, 2025 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 5 low flags | 1 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | We also expect the recent widening of the West Hub to PPL zonal basis to revert to more recent average levels No fixed deadline was attached to this expectation, so it remains open, but the data moved in the opposite direction this quarter: basis widened from roughly $9/MWh to roughly $20/MWh rather than reverting. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | We expect to maintain the ability to achieve below 3.5 times net leverage by year-end 2026 Year-end 2026 has not arrived; actual current leverage ratio was not stated on this call, only the 3.5x target was repeated. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | We expect to provide an update to 2026 guidance after closing the transaction 2026 EBITDA guidance was raised to $2.025 billion to $2.225 billion and FCF guidance to $1.2 billion to $1.35 billion, fulfilling the promised update. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | We anticipate approval in Indiana by this summer Actual Indiana regulatory approval was not explicitly restated on this call. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | We filed our 203 application with FERC in January and anticipate approval by this summer Actual FERC 203 approval was not explicitly restated on this call. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | We expect to close as soon as this summer 2026 guidance raised this quarter explicitly incorporates Cornerstone acquisition impacts, confirming the deal closed within the promised summer window. |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Strong operational performance during winter weather (Q4 2025) Fleet performed well during late January/February cold events, 55% capacity factor achieved |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continue share repurchase program at scale (Q4 2025) $100M executed in Q1, $1.9B remaining through 2028 |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Maintain net leverage below 3.5x through 2026 (Q4 2025) Currently 3.1x, maintained target including Cornerstone impact |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | 2026 as year of market rationalization vs 2025 year of options (Q4 2025) Management maintaining this framing, noting some projects won't make it while others advance |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Update 2026 guidance once Cornerstone closes (Q4 2025) Guidance still excludes Cornerstone, update promised after closing |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Close Cornerstone as soon as this summer (Q4 2025) Still on track - FERC filing in January, DOJ cleared, Indiana hearing held. Summer 2026 close maintained |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | AWS ramp continues with potential acceleration opportunities Management noted signs of acceleration, site energized and progressing |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Net leverage below 3.5x by end of 2026 Currently 3.0x, on track but depends on Cornerstone timing |
| Q4'25 | Pending | We'll be first to know when we're done on next contracts No new contracts announced, timeline now indefinite |
| Q4'25 | Pending | 2026 guidance ranges $1.75B-$2.05B EBITDA, $980M-$1.18B FCF Reaffirmed despite strong winter, excluding Cornerstone |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Working on zoning and permitting at Montour site County commissioners rejected the project, management now refuses to discuss specifics |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Freedom and Guernsey closing by November 17, 2025 after HSR refiling Closed in late November 2025, contributed 5 weeks to Q4 results |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Regain lost opportunity from spring outage (Q2) Fewer peak days in July/August, opportunities didn't materialize |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Working on next deal since early 2024 (Q2) Still no announcements, added defensive language about their timeline |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Unit 2 megawatt recovery payback less than 2 years (Q2) Seeing 75+ MW already from extended outage work |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Continue $500M annual share repurchases (Q2) Zero Q3 buybacks due to MNPI, still committed but timing unclear |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Target close acquisitions by end of year (Q2) Timeline slipping into Q1 2026 due to repeated HSR refilings |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Reaffirming 2025 guidance ranges (Q2) Now admits trending toward low end due to limited Q3 volatility |
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