| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 20, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 21, 2026 | 7/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 21, 2026 | 11/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | 2026-01-26 | 10/12 | 1 medium, 6 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | We believe the second half of 2026 capital investments will be in the range of between $300 million and $350 million Q3 actual CapEx was $150M with Q4 estimated 'also in that same range', implying ~$300M for 2H, tracking to the low end of prior guidance; final confirmation awaits Q4 actuals. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Exiting 2026 at a monthly production rate of at least 90% capacity for the aluminum mill Deadline (year-end 2026) has not passed; management reaffirmed the 90% target but acknowledged being 'a month behind' due to the hot strip mill issue. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | The second CASH line is expected to start commissioning in the fourth quarter of this year The current call says the line is commissioning, satisfying the prior start-commissioning milestone. Q1 2027 operation is a separate milestone. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We would expect to be earnings positive in the second half of the year as well [aluminum EBIT] Management now says H2 in total is unlikely to be earnings-positive and expects positive earnings from Q1 2027. Record the outlook revision separately from a completed-period result. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We expect volumes and profitability from the aluminum rolling mill to increase sharply in the second half of 2026 and into 2027 Q3 ramp performance was below expectations, but H2 and 2027 are not complete. Track actual shipments and profitability over the promised period. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Aluminum EBITDA positive H2 2026 Now saying 'earnings positive' which is higher bar |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Second CASH line Q4 commissioning Pushed from Q3 to Q4 but maintaining timeline |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Exit 2026 at 90% aluminum capacity Tracking well, June at 60% suggests achievable |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Third cold mill in Q3 Actually ahead of schedule, starting July per management |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Automotive certifications in coming weeks 5182 and 5754 certified, 6000 series in trials as promised |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Aluminum shipments 60-70k tons in Q2 Delivered 53k tons, blamed on packaging issues and floor inventory |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Steel fabrication backlog extends through 2026 Backlog extends into 2026, December strong bookings month confirmed |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Aluminum will be exiting 2026 at rate approaching 90% capacity Upgraded confidence to definitive 90%, ahead of schedule vs prior 75% target |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Continued share repurchase program execution Reduced to $115M from $240M prior quarter due to working capital needs |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Capital investments for 2026 in range of $600M Reaffirmed $600M guidance, Q1 spent $138M on track |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Second tandem cold mill and first CASH line operating before end of Q1 2026 First CASH line operational, second tandem mill commissioning as scheduled |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | EBITDA positive in December based on 10,000 metric tons Delivered EBITDA positive in Feb/March, ramped to 22K tons Q1 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Sinton consistent operational execution Record quarter for shipments, quality matured, despite transformer incident |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Four value-added lines operating around 60% capability Lines now operating 'full' according to Barry, helped by trade case success |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Steel prices stabilized with potential upward movement in 2026 Prices have recently improved with stable demand and lower imports |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Product mix optimization in 2027 Now expecting optimization 'sometime in 2027' vs earlier 2028 expectation |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | 75% aluminum capacity exit rate by end 2026 Upgraded to 90% capacity target, significantly ahead of original plan |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Aluminum monthly EBITDA breakeven or better in Q4 2025 Achieved EBITDA positive in December 2025 as promised |
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