Steel Dynamics (STLD)

The sleeper story is that aluminum is actually working (60% utilization, automotive certs in 12 months) but management won't quantify the windfall from 'significantly better' spreads because they're sandbagging for a massive beat. The Street sees record steel shipments and celebrates, but cash conversion collapsed to 46% with $225M trapped in working capital that management deflected discussing. The binding constraint isn't aluminum ramp or steel demand, it's working capital management that's destroying cash returns. Theresa admitting spreads are 'considerably higher than what we would have included' while maintaining $650-700M guidance is basically an admission they're sitting on $200M+ of upside. My view changes if Q3 DSO spikes above 50 or aluminum stays unprofitable despite 90% utilization.