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Call sheet · Q3'26

Steel Dynamics (STLD)

Q3'26 earnings call · held October 20, 2026 · compared with the Q2'26 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
1 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
Steel earnings improved substantially, while aluminum losses narrowed. The aluminum ramp is the central follow-up: management weakened the H2 earnings outlook but retained future operating milestones. The earnings release supplies shipment tonnage, so missing-disclosure criticism is unwarranted. Track actual output, yields and operating profit rather than treating EBITDA breakeven or commissioning as the final destination.

The 30-second version

  • Steel earnings rose, while aluminum still has to prove its ramp
  • Aluminum shipments were disclosed
  • Commissioning and operation are different milestones

What changed this quarter

MetricQ2'26Q3'26Change
Revenue$6.1B (Q2'26)$6.5B (Q3'26)+6.6% QoQ, record steel pricing/shipments
Net Income$534M, $3.69/sh$756M, $5.26/sh+42% QoQ EPS jump
Operating Income$700Mjust over $1.0B+43% QoQ
Adjusted EBITDA$921M$1.2BApproximately 30% sequential increase; management discussed about $30M of FX and hedge mark-to-market effects
Steel segment operating income$721M, +30% seq$1.0B, +43% seqAcceleration, ASP +$102/ton
Steel mill utilization vs industry90% vs 81% industry92% vs 80% industryWidening utilization gap vs peers
Aluminum operating loss-$33M, +48% seq improvement-$26M, +21% seq improvementLoss narrowed by approximately $7M sequentially
Aluminum shipment tonnage53,000 metric tons (explicit)55,000 metric tons (issuer earnings release)Approximately 3.8% sequential increase
Fabrication operating income$85M (vs $90M Q1)$91MModest sequential improvement despite raw material headwind
Fab backlog YoY growth+45% YoY+50% YoYStill accelerating

Accountability tracked

3 new promises made2 narrative shifts flagged5 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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