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Management credibility scorecard

OKTA

6 quarters tracked (Q3'25 to Q2'27) · latest call August 26, 2026
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100%
Kept of 29 resolved
29
Kept or exceeded
0
Missed
8
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · diluter

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'27August 26, 20268/121 high, 5 medium, 2 low flags20Call sheet →
Q4'26March 4, 20269/123 medium, 5 low flags60Call sheet →
Q3'262025-12-029/124 medium, 2 low flags60Call sheet →
Q1'262025-05-2710/122 medium, 4 low flags40Call sheet →
Q4'252025-03-0311/123 medium, 3 low flags60Call sheet →
Q3'25December 3, 202411/123 medium, 5 low flags50Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'27PendingFY27 free cash flow margin guidance of 27%-28%
Year not complete; revised upward to 28%-29% this quarter.
Q2'27PendingFY27 non-GAAP operating margin guidance of 25%-26%
Year not complete; revised to a flat 26% this quarter.
Q2'27PendingFY27 total revenue growth guidance of 9%-10%
Full fiscal year not yet complete; guidance was revised upward to 10%-11% this quarter, which is a revision, not a delivery or miss.
Q2'27DeliveredProfessional services shift to GSIs expected to begin materializing in Q2
Confirmed: Q2 professional services revenue fell to approximately 1% of total revenue as guided.
Q2'27DeliveredConvertible notes to be settled with $350M cash 'next month'
Confirmed: notes matured in June and the $350M principal was settled in cash, leaving zero convertible debt.
Q2'27PendingQ2 FY27 CRPO growth guidance of 11%
Analysts referenced strong CRPO acceleration, but management did not restate an actual CRPO growth percentage in the cited material; actual not independently confirmed from management's own words.
Q2'27PendingQ2 FY27 total revenue growth guidance of 9%
Actual Q2 revenue growth figure was not restated in management's own words on this call; unverified against the specific 9% target.
Q4'26ExceededNew products would continue driving growth
Hit 30% of bookings, above prior quarter levels
Q4'26DeliveredAI products would start generating revenue
Multiple AI deals closed with 'significant ACV uplift'
Q4'26DeliveredWould continue adding quota-carrying sales capacity
Confirmed continued hiring through Q4 into Q1
Q4'26DeliveredQ4 would be seasonally biggest quarter with tremendous opportunity
Record TCV of $1.3B and strong results delivered
Q4'26DeliveredSpecialization strategy would improve sales productivity
Reported productivity improvements and lower attrition
Q4'26DeliveredWe will issue FY27 guidance on our Q4 earnings call
Provided FY27 guidance as promised, though conservative
Q3'26DeliveredPublic sector strength to continue despite federal headwinds
Solid Q3 performance, government shutdown impact minimal as predicted
Q3'26DeliveredNew products to continue healthy contribution to bookings
New products remained strong contributor, though specific percentages not disclosed
Q3'26DeliveredNRR to stabilize in 106% range through FY26
Held at 106% as expected, though language became less confident
Q3'26ExceededCurrent RPO growth of 10% for Q3
Delivered 13% current RPO growth, 300 bps beat
Q3'26DeliveredRemoving macro conservatism from guidance if conditions didn't materialize
Removed federal and macro headwinds from FY26 outlook after solid Q3
Q3'26DeliveredGo-to-market specialization would drive improved sales productivity
Sales productivity up both QoQ and YoY, AE attrition at multiyear low
Q1'26DeliveredContinued investment in product innovation
New products sustained at ~20% of bookings, NHI and AI capabilities expanded
Q1'26PendingSeat headwinds abating in second half
Still expecting first half headwinds, second half improvement timeline unchanged
Q1'26PendingAuth for GenAI moving to general availability
Still in developer preview, GA expected 'this summer' - timeline maintained
Q1'26DeliveredOIG mainstream adoption with key capabilities
Added separation of duties and on-prem connector, called out as now mainstream-ready
Q1'26DeliveredReducing conservatism in guidance philosophy
Maintained guidance approach but added macro layer - consistent with prior messaging
Q1'26DeliveredFurther specializing go-to-market into Okta and Auth0 sellers
Completed Q1 rollout with encouraged early results, Auth0 had strong quarter
Q4'25DeliveredNo longer incorporating security incident conservatism
Confirmed no quantifiable impact in Q4, removed from guidance methodology
Q4'25ExceededNew product innovation as key investment area
20%+ of bookings from new products vs 15% in Q3, Auth for Gen AI launched
Q4'25DeliveredFurther go-to-market specialization planning for FY26
Announced Okta vs Auth0 seller specialization, building on hunter-farmer success
Q4'25DeliveredContinue partner ecosystem investment as growth priority
70%+ partner-influenced deals, AWS Marketplace $1B milestone, partner-of-year award
Q4'25ExceededNon-GAAP operating margin of at least 22% for FY26
Raised to 25% - 300 bps better than preliminary guidance
Q4'25ExceededPreliminary FY26 revenue guidance of ~7% growth
Raised to 9-10% growth - significant 200-300 bps beat on initial guidance
Q3'25DeliveredNew product attach and cross-sell momentum
15% of bookings from new products, multiple products contributing beyond just governance
Q3'25ExceededPartner ecosystem investments to drive larger deal sizes
100% of top 10 deals had partner involvement, deals 3x larger through partners
Q3'25PendingHunter-farmer model implementation to improve SMB performance
Expanded globally but admits 'too early to tell' on results after two quarters
Q3'25DeliveredFocus on large enterprise customers and Global 2000 penetration
$1M+ cohort now $1B ACV, continued strength in large deals
Q3'25ExceededDrive operational efficiencies and margin improvement
Achieved GAAP profitability in Q2, maintaining 22%+ operating margins
Q3'25DeliveredContinue to monitor security incident impact through rest of FY25
Explicitly stated no longer incorporating additional conservatism - effectively closed this chapter
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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