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Management credibility scorecard

Samsara (IOT)

8 quarters tracked (Q2'25 to Q2'27) · latest call September 3, 2026
Get the next IOT call sheet
97%
Kept of 37 resolved
36
Kept or exceeded
1
Missed
6
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · diluter

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'27September 3, 20266/122 high, 3 medium flags00Call sheet →
Q1'27June 4, 202610/123 medium, 4 low flags50Call sheet →
Q4'262026-03-0510/123 medium, 5 low flags50Call sheet →
Q3'26December 4, 202510/121 medium, 5 low flags60Call sheet →
Q1'26June 5, 20254/121 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags50Call sheet →
Q4'252025-03-069/122 medium, 5 low flags41Call sheet →
Q3'25December 5, 20249/122 medium, 5 low flags60Call sheet →
Q2'25September 5, 20249/123 medium, 5 low flags50Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q1'27DeliveredGAAP profitability sustainability
Third consecutive quarter of GAAP EPS profitability, positive even excluding $30M award
Q1'27ExceededOperational leverage at scale
Non-GAAP operating margin 19% vs 15% guidance, 500 bps YoY improvement
Q1'27ExceededInternational expansion delivering results
Hit record 18% net new ACV mix vs 15% prior quarter, Europe largest deal ever
Q1'27ExceededLarge customer momentum continuing
$1M+ ARR growth accelerated to 62% YoY from 56%, fourth consecutive quarter of acceleration
Q1'27DeliveredEmerging products to be material contributor (implied 20%+ mix)
Delivered 20%+ for second consecutive quarter, though declined from 23% to 20%+
Q4'26DeliveredMaintain ~115% dollar-based net retention rate
Maintained 115% target for both old and new core customer definitions
Q4'26DeliveredLarge customer momentum to drive higher growth at scale
$100K+ and $1M+ customers both accelerated for multiple consecutive quarters
Q4'26ExceededEmerging products to contribute meaningful ARR growth
Emerged products hit 23% of net new ACV, crossed $100M ARR milestone
Q4'26ExceededPublic sector growth momentum to continue
Public sector had highest net new ACV mix ever and 3rd consecutive year of acceleration
Q4'26DeliveredDrive continued acceleration in Europe for multiple quarters
Europe accelerated for 4th straight quarter as promised
Q4'26PendingContinue making investments in R&D and go-to-market resources internationally in FY27
Softened to vague 'long-term' language, no specific FY27 commitment made
Q3'26ExceededNon-GAAP operating margin 15% for full year
Raised to 16% for full year, delivered 19% in Q3
Q3'26DeliveredFirst Student deal phased rollout over several quarters
Confirmed phased approach, though ARR addition already decelerating in Q3
Q3'26ExceededFull year FY26 revenue $1.574-1.578B (26% growth)
Raised guidance to $1.595-1.597B (28% growth)
Q3'26DeliveredLarge customer momentum driving higher growth at scale
219 $100K+ customers added (quarterly record) and 36% growth from this cohort
Q3'26DeliveredDollar-based net retention rate approximately 115%
Achieved target 115% rate as promised
Q3'26ExceededEmerging products contribution around 8% continuing to ramp
Delivered 20% contribution, massive beat vs 8% expectation
Q3'26PendingContinue to add more sales capacity in international going into second half
Not specifically updated on international hiring progress this quarter
Q1'26PendingEquipment monitoring scale would benefit gross margins
Gross margin hit record 79% but no attribution to equipment monitoring specifically
Q1'26PendingLarge customers provide expansion opportunities to drive growth
Customer adds slowed 32% QoQ despite record Q4, expansion timeline elongating
Q1'26DeliveredInternational to be area of continued investment and focus
Achieved tied-highest international mix at 18% of net new ACV
Q1'26ExceededFY26 non-GAAP operating margin approximately 11%
Raised to approximately 13%, +200 bps improvement
Q1'26ExceededFY26 revenue between $1.523-1.533B
Raised to $1.547-1.555B, +$24M midpoint increase
Q1'26DeliveredContinue adding more sales capacity throughout the year
Confirmed continued sales hiring based on Q1 productivity
Q1'26DeliveredTarget dollar-based net retention rate of approximately 115%
Achieved exactly 115% in Q1, consistent with Q4 target
Q4'25DeliveredMore than 100% quarter-over-quarter growth in Asset Tag net new ACV
Continued strong Asset Tag growth mentioned in Q4, though being more cautious about FY26 impact
Q4'25Delivered17% of net new ACV came from international in Q3, second highest ever
Maintained 17% international mix in Q4, tied for second highest
Q4'25ExceededWe expect FY25 non-GAAP operating margin to be approximately 7%
Delivered better than 7% with Q4 at 16% operating margin
Q4'25ExceededWe expect revenue to be between $334M and $336M for Q4
Delivered $346M, beat by $10M+ on strong large customer quarter
Q4'25PendingBoth Samsara Assistant and Intelligent Experiences will be generally available after running customer feedback
Still in beta, now saying they need to 'figure out pricing and packaging' - timeline pushed
Q4'25MissedWe feel good with where the current consensus dollars are right now for FY26
Q3 Dom said consensus was fine - actual FY26 guide came in below consensus at 22-23% vs expected ~25%+
Q3'25DeliveredContinue to add more large customers and grow average ARR per large customer
Added 170 $100K+ customers (second highest ever), crossed 100 $1M+ customer milestone
Q3'25DeliveredAsset Tags customer feedback has been strong, seeing new use cases every week
Multiple large transactions including $300K+ expansion with top 100 construction customer
Q3'25DeliveredEurope fourth consecutive quarter of accelerating year-over-year ARR growth
International hit 17% of net new ACV, second highest quarterly contribution ever
Q3'25DeliveredWe're going to continue a pretty rapid pace of innovation in product development
Delivered Samsara Intelligence suite, European compliance features, Mexico security features
Q3'25DeliveredRolling out generative AI chat environment to customers for feedback over next couple months
Samsara Assistant now in beta with North American customers, on track for GA after feedback
Q3'25ExceededAsset Tags reaching approximately $1 million in net new ACV in first quarter Q2
Delivered over 100% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q3, showing accelerating adoption
Q2'25ExceededDelivering operating leverage and margin expansion
6% operating margin beat expectations, quarterly record
Q2'25PendingContinued investment in sales hiring and capacity building
Language softened from 'strongest ever' to 'on track' - may be pulling back
Q2'25DeliveredTargeting dollar-based net retention of 115% core, 120% large customers
Hit targets exactly as guided
Q2'25DeliveredSustaining revenue growth rate at larger scale
37% revenue growth maintained for third consecutive quarter
Q2'25ExceededContinue demonstrating strong execution across frontier markets including international and emerging products
International at 16% mix, record $1M+ customer adds, new product traction all exceeded
Q2'25DeliveredHosting Beyond customer conference June 26-28 in Chicago with Investor Day June 27
Successfully held Beyond conference as promised
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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