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Call sheet · Q4'26

Samsara (IOT)

Q4'26 earnings call · held 2026-03-05 · compared with the Q3'26 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 5 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is Asset Tags becoming an industrial IoT empire - they're not just tracking trucks anymore but instrumenting 250,000+ safety assets at Total Safety and expanding into handheld tools with 6-year batteries. Everyone will focus on the 30% ARR growth and AI agent launch, but the real constraint is sales cycle volatility from chasing $1M+ deals that Dom explicitly warned will create 'more variability in quarterly results.' Most revealing quote: Sanjit dodging Alex's AI pricing question with 'we'll have more to come there' - they still don't know how to monetize 25 trillion data points. My view changes if Q1 shows large deal timing issues or Asset Tags growth continues decelerating from 400%+ to 300% range.

The 30-second version

  • The Asset Tag stealth revolution: Samsara quietly building industrial IoT empire
  • AI agents launch, but monetization still in 'we're testing' mode
  • Large customer growth accelerating but sales cycle volatility warning embedded

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'26Q4'26Change
Total ARR$1.75B (29% YoY)$1.9B (30% YoY)Sequential acceleration despite larger scale
Net New ARR$105M (24% YoY)$145M (33% YoY, 31% constant currency)+900 bps acceleration, highest in 8 quarters
$100K+ ARR customers2,990 (+219)3,194 (+204)37% YoY ARR growth, 2nd consecutive quarter acceleration
$1M+ customers164 (+17)181 (+17 implied)56% YoY ARR growth, 3rd consecutive quarter acceleration
$1M+ net new ACV deals8 deals (tied record)13 deals (quarterly record)+63% deal volume increase
Emerging products % of net new ACV20%23%+300 bps, now >$100M ARR
International % of net new ACV16%15%Slight decline but Europe accelerated 4th straight quarter
Full year revenueExpected $1.595-1.597B$1.6B (30% YoY)Beat guidance, 29% constant currency
Non-GAAP operating margin Q419% (record)Not disclosed for Q4Full year 17% vs 9% prior year
Free cash flow margin FY26Expected leverage13% vs 9% prior year+400 bps improvement

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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