Samsara (IOT)

The sleeper story everyone's missing: Samsara just proved they can crack the enterprise new logo code with 44% of new $100K+ customers being net new (vs historical 30-35%), suggesting their enterprise motion is working despite longer cycles. The obvious headline of record Q4 metrics masks a more concerning reality - FY26 guidance of 22-23% growth represents a 900+ bps deceleration that management attributes to 'multi-year' enterprise customers, but this doesn't explain why growth falls off a cliff if the customer quality is supposedly better. The binding constraint isn't demand (construction/food&bev are accelerating) or product-market fit (62% of large customers use 3+ products), it's their own admission that enterprise sales cycles are 'much more variable and often span several years.' As Sanjit said: 'These larger customers typically have more complex sales cycles that often span several years and are less predictable.' My view changes if they can prove the $10M+ ARR customer pipeline is real and provide specific AI monetization timelines beyond 'we're still in beta.'