For context on Centennial Bank's small-business lending footprint, see its SBA lending profile on US Lender Metrics, including approval volume, loan sizes and industry mix. SBA approvals are not the same as funded loans or recognized revenue; the profile states its reporting period.
| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 15, 2026 | 8/12 | 4 medium, 4 low flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 16, 2026 | 6/12 | 5 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 16, 2026 | 10/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 15, 2026 | 9/12 | 2 high, 2 medium, 3 low flags | 1 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | It is our intention to do another M&A deal on the heels of Mountain Commerce The specific deal Allison was most enthusiastic about has stalled with the banker going 'radio silent'; a second deal was abandoned by HOMB after diligence. No deal has been announced. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We have modeled 20%, which is about $5.5 million [annual cost savings from Mountain Commerce] Reaffirmed this quarter at 'a little over $5 million on an annualized basis', but realization is contingent on the November 6 systems conversion, which has not yet occurred. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Our goal was to repurchase over a short period of time the shares that we issued in the Mountain Commerce transaction, and we are already approaching the halfway mark As of this call, only ~3.3-3.7 million of a ~6 million share target has been repurchased, and management now says completion may slip to 'the first half of next year', a clear timeline extension from the original 'short period of time' framing. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We stand by our comments that we expect no further loss [on the large nonperforming Texas C&I credit] The sale structure now shows a recovery over book balance (~$101-102M vs $91M book), consistent with 'no further loss,' but the transaction has not closed per the pending signed agreements awaiting Coast Guard approval; actual cash proceeds not yet stated on the call. Progress, not resolution. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Christopher Poulton guided CCFG to mid-single-digit growth on a rolling basis for the year Not reaffirmed this quarter; only an absolute YTD origination figure of $8.9 billion was given, with no explicit growth rate restated, so delivery is unverified |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Management will endeavor to buy back the shares issued in the Mountain Commerce transaction, as was done for Happy Bank Progress made: buyback pace accelerated to 1.5M shares in Q2 from 507K in Q1, and management says it is approaching the halfway mark of the MCB shares issued |
| Q2'26 | Missed | The ~$100M Texas nonperforming credit resolution 'could happen as early as this quarter or next' Still outstanding at roughly the same balance (a little less than 100 million, still where it was) with no new firm date given |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Kevin Hester guided Q2 payoffs at roughly $1 billion Confirmed on the Q2 call: last quarter's number was a billion dollars, a little bit over, with Q3 flagged as potentially similar |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Kevin Hester forecast a continuing downward loan balance trend into Q2 due to very high projected payoffs Actual result was the opposite direction: +$26M versus an internally forecast -$600M, an enormous swing; management now says it will no longer forecast loan growth going forward |
| Q1'26 | Pending | DFW apartment credit: "We continue to work with other parties to move this credit out of the bank." Still unresolved; management now says 'we will get it sold eventually' with no firm counterparty identified. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Standalone 2026 expense growth budgeted at roughly 1% Full year not complete; Q1 core expenses of ~$115M versus the ~$114M Q4 ex-merger base is roughly consistent with the 1% guide so far. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | "While it will be tough to compete with 2025, we believe that 2026 will be equally as successful." Full fiscal year not yet complete; however, Q1 commentary (soft Q2 outlook, declining ending balances) represents a clear downward revision in tone versus this statement. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Target loan-to-deposit ratio in the mid-90s, versus 89% actual at Q4 Not addressed on this call at all; actual not stated, status unverifiable from the transcript. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Mountain Commerce deal expected to close "this April or May" Management confirms the merger has been completed; exact closing date not restated on this call. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Texas C&I credit "could end up going to nonaccrual before we get it out of here" The flagged risk materialized exactly as warned: the $110M credit was placed on nonperforming status this quarter. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Signed LOI for a multi-billion dollar acquisition target, moving forward. Target identified and formally announced as Mountain Commerce Bank, with regulatory applications already filed. |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Allison aspirational comment on getting core quarterly expenses down to $111 million. Q4 core expenses (ex-merger costs) came in at approximately $114 million, roughly $3M above the stated target, with no acknowledgment of the gap on this call. |
| Q4'25 | Pending | John Allison targeting $500 million in FY2026 net income, 'holding that number.' FY2026 has not ended; target not restated or mentioned anywhere on the Q4 call, actual not stated on the call. |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Texas C&I credit expected to possibly move to nonaccrual before resolution, with no additional loss believed. Still unresolved three quarters running; management repeats near-identical language ('stay tuned') with no concrete timeline or update on the no-additional-loss assertion. |
| Q4'25 | Missed | DFW apartment nonaccrual loan under signed sale agreement with 10%+ hard deposit, expected to close in Q4 2025. Sale agreement fell through in Q4; hard deposit was applied to the balance and carrying value written down, but no sale completed as promised. |
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