| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 20, 2026 | 9/12 | 3 medium flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 21, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 21, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 17, 2026 | 6/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 3 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | October 21, 2025 | 8/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 4 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | We now expect $20 million-$30 million of incremental costs for the remainder of the year as a result of the Iran conflict. Second half 2026 is not complete. The estimate was revised upward this quarter to $30-40 million, a worsening revision rather than a final miss. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We are currently in flight with two state-of-the-art distribution centers at NAPA that we expect to go live at the end of the year. Year-end deadline has not passed. One of the two DCs went live in Q3, ahead of pace; the second remains targeted for year-end as stated this quarter. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We anticipate hosting investor days for both companies in early December in New York. Event hasn't occurred yet; management firmed the vague 'early December' into specific dates (Dec 8 GPC, Dec 9 Motion) this quarter. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We continue to expect adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $7.50-$8, up 5% at the midpoint of the range versus 2025. FY2026 is not yet complete. Guidance was revised down this quarter to $7.50-$7.75, a cut rather than a final delivered/missed outcome; flagged as a revision. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We also expect to confidentially file the Form 10 with the SEC later this summer. Summer has passed as of the October 20 call, but management did not confirm the Form 10 was actually filed on this call; only generic progress language was given. Actual not stated on the call. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Investment-grade ratings for both SpinCos Not mentioned this quarter but critical for separation |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Benson acquisition ahead of financial targets Explicitly stated 'ahead of our financial and operational target plans' |
| Q2'26 | Pending | $7.50-8.00 adjusted EPS for 2026 Maintained despite Iran headwinds, suggests confidence |
| Q2'26 | Pending | 40-60 bps gross margin expansion for full year Only 20bps in Q2, needs acceleration in H2 |
| Q2'26 | Pending | 3-5.5% total sales growth for 2026 Q2 at 6%, ahead of range but guided for moderation |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Deliver $100-125M restructuring benefits in 2026 On track with $55M YTD, $30M in Q2 alone |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Separation in Q1 2027 Reiterated timeline, Form 10 filing coming 'later this summer' |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Cash from operations of $1.0-1.2B for 2026 Q1 at $64M but seasonally low - working capital timing was favorable |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Transformation benefit of $100-125M in 2026 Q1 delivered $26M benefit vs $59M costs - needs to accelerate |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Separation on track for completion in first quarter of 2027 Management reaffirmed timeline and progress - no delays indicated |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Adjusted diluted EPS of $7.50 to $8.00 for 2026 Q1 $1.77 suggests run-rate tracking to guidance despite Iran headwinds |
| Q1'26 | Pending | 40 to 60 basis points of full year adjusted gross margin expansion Q1 delivered 20bps with tough comps ahead - on track but back-loaded |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Total GPC sales growth in the range of 3% to 5.5% for 2026 Q1 delivered 7% but included significant FX tailwinds - underlying growth tracking to guidance |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Q3: Strategic review update to be provided in 2026 at Investor Day Announced separation decision ahead of schedule with Investor Days planned for 2026 |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Q3: Sequential improvement momentum with independent owners to continue Independent owner sales went from +1% growth in Q3 to flat in Q4, missing expectations |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Q3: Working closely with First Brands, cautiously optimistic about path to resolution First Brands filed bankruptcy, took $150M writeoff, had to execute contingency plans with alternative suppliers |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Q3: Restructuring benefits of $110-135M expected in 2025 Delivered $175M, beating high end by $40M |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Q3: Cost structure set up for rebound with good operating leverage when market improves Still claiming this setup exists, but market hasn't rebounded yet to test it |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Q3: Expecting stronger Q4 sales growth to offset headwinds and deliver earnings growth Q4 earnings down vs up as promised, blamed on weaker Europe and independent owner sales |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Q2: Over $200M annualized restructuring savings by 2026 Reiterated the same target, on track per management |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q2: Independent owner sentiment showing signs of improvement Independent purchases turned positive at +1% vs down low single digits in Q2 |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Q2: European performance would benefit from NAPA brand expansion Europe comp sales worsened to -2% from -1%, described results as 'below our expectations' |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q2: SG&A deleverage would continue to improve sequentially Auto EBITDA margins turned positive YoY, Industrial expanded 30 bps |
| Q3'25 | Missed | Q2: PMI improvement would help industrial demand PMI stayed below 50 for last 7 months, but Industrial still grew 5% somehow |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q2: Tariffs would have low single-digit benefit to sales, low single-digit cost increase Confirmed again in Q3, described as 'slight benefit to our results' |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Q2: Expected third quarter earnings to increase 5% to 10% Delivered exactly 5.3% adjusted EPS growth-hit the low end but within range |
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