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Management credibility scorecard

Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM)

6 quarters tracked (Q3'25 to Q1'27) · latest call July 30, 2026
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89%
Kept of 27 resolved
24
Kept or exceeded
3
Missed
10
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · flat

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q1'27July 30, 20267/121 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags30Call sheet →
Q4'26May 7, 202610/122 medium, 4 low flags41Call sheet →
Q3'262026-01-2910/122 medium, 6 low flags50Call sheet →
Q1'26July 31, 202510/121 medium, 5 low flags50Call sheet →
Q4'252025-05-0810/124 medium, 4 low flags32Call sheet →
Q3'252025-01-3010/122 medium, 4 low flags40Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q1'27PendingContinue to make strategic investments in R&D
OpEx guided up $4.5M sequentially, suggests following through
Q1'27DeliveredFocus Auto up 30% in FY26
Achieved per prior call confirmation
Q1'27DeliveredSelective price increases to begin at end of Q1
Confirmed pricing actions began, but impact pushed to Q3/Q4
Q1'27PendingGold to copper conversion to reduce 200 bps headwind
Mentioned but no quantification of progress
Q1'27DeliveredData center growth rate well north of 20% long-term
More than doubling this year exceeds promise
Q1'27PendingExpect to be trending towards mid-50s gross margins over next couple years
At 51.1%, making progress but timeline vague
Q4'26DeliveredAuto growth SAAR plus 7-10% on share gains
Auto up 17% in FY26 vs their SAAR+7-10% target, above high end of range
Q4'26MissedContinue voluntary debt payments
No debt paydown in Q4 for first time in several quarters, though they built cash instead
Q4'26DeliveredOpEx to increase at inflation rate after Q4 reset
Derek confirmed Q1 OpEx down to $80M ± $2M after Q4 payroll tax reset
Q4'26DeliveredTMR current sensors gaining customer traction
10 MHz TMR won EDN Sensor Product of the Year, confirmed broad customer sampling
Q4'26PendingIsolated gate drivers revenue in 18-24 months
Timeline maintained consistently, still tracking to original commitment
Q4'26ExceededData center to grow at market rate with CAGR north of 20%
Q4 data center was up 41% sequentially, well above 20% threshold
Q3'26DeliveredContinue to see positive momentum in automotive bookings
Achieved multi-quarter highs in bookings and backlog as promised
Q3'26PendingOpEx to increase at inflationary rate after variable comp reset
Reiterated for FY27, with Q4 increase due to payroll tax reset as expected
Q3'26ExceededData center to continue growing at 20%+ CAGR short-term
Data center hit 10% of sales, up 31% sequentially, well above 20% CAGR
Q3'26PendingMarch quarter typically sees Chinese New Year impact
Called out China impact for Q4 guidance with auto flat to down marginally
Q3'26DeliveredNon-GAAP EPS to be between $0.12 and $0.16
Achieved $0.15, at midpoint of guidance
Q3'26DeliveredGross margin to be between 49% and 51%
Hit 49.9%, within range but below midpoint
Q3'26ExceededExpected third quarter sales to be in the range of $215M to $225M
Delivered $229M, above the high end of guidance range
Q1'26DeliveredDistribution channel inventory normalization
Down another 13% sequential, some regions need specific parts restocking
Q1'26PendingChina-for-China meaningful revenues later in the year
Still on track per Mike - wafer transfers take time but back-end progress faster
Q1'26DeliveredBegin to see restructuring benefits in Q1
$15M annualized savings starting to flow through both COGS and OpEx
Q1'26DeliveredContinued strong bookings and backlog growth
Bookings to levels not seen since fiscal '23 with growing backlog
Q1'26ExceededOpEx approximately $72M in Q1
Came in at $75M due to variable comp, R&D timing, and FX - $3M above guidance
Q1'26ExceededGross margin 46-48% for Q1
Delivered 48.2% vs 47% midpoint - 75% drop-through from cost reductions cycling through
Q4'25DeliveredMake progress on China for China qualification throughout calendar 2024
Various products qualified, shipping from local OSATs began, but revenue timeline slipped
Q4'25DeliveredBookings momentum to continue with fifth consecutive quarter of growth
Bookings up 20% sequentially in Q4, maintained growth streak
Q4'25PendingMarch quarter to be trough in gross margin percentages
Q1 guidance of 46-48% suggests Q4 at 45.6% was indeed the bottom, but improvement modest
Q4'25DeliveredBuild strategic wafer and die bank while reducing finished goods
Finished goods down $9M, inventory days from 182 to 148, but at cost of gross margin pressure
Q4'25Missed60-65% incremental drop-through on revenue growth
Q4 gross margin declined 350bps despite 8% revenue growth - structural issues not just mix/timing
Q4'25MissedChina for China supply chain to have meaningful revenues by end of calendar 2024
Timeline pushed to 'later in the year' for 2025 - roughly 6-12 month delay from original commitment
Q3'25PendingWe expect the March quarter will be a trough in gross margin percentages
Derek's new commitment for Q4 being the bottom
Q3'25PendingWe still expect demand to recover at some point in calendar year 2025
Softened language to 'cautiously optimistic' about recovery 'later in the year'
Q3'25DeliveredFirst parts from newly formed China supply chain will launch before end of year
Confirmed shipments from local OSATs starting in Q4
Q3'25DeliveredNon-GAAP EPS between $0.04 and $0.08 in Q3
Hit $0.07, above midpoint
Q3'25DeliveredGross margin to be between 49% and 51% in Q3
Achieved 49.1%, within guided range
Q3'25DeliveredWe expect third quarter sales to be in the range of $170M to $180M
Hit $178M, above midpoint of guidance range
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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