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Call sheet · Q4'26

Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM)

Q4'26 earnings call · held May 7, 2026 · compared with the Q3'26 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
2 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is current sensors quietly becoming 20% of data center mix in Q4 vs 10% in Q3, scaling into power supply applications across hyperscaler platforms at higher margins than fan drivers. While everyone focuses on AI server unit growth, Allegro's content scales with power density from $150 to $425 per rack as consumption moves from 15kW to 1MW. The binding constraint isn't demand - it's their ability to execute the gold-to-copper conversion and capacity expansion while maintaining the pricing power they just signaled with Q2 price increases. Mike's most revealing quote: 'Because we solve the thermal and sensing challenges that come with extreme power density, our content opportunity per rack scales.' My view changes if auto inventory finally starts restocking (ending 20 quarters below peak) or if data center margins disappoint despite the favorable product mix shift to current sensors.

The 30-second version

  • Data center current sensors are the sleeper story: quietly hit 20% of DC mix in Q4 vs 10% in Q3
  • Content per rack story scales with AI power density: $150 today to $425+ in next-gen configurations
  • Auto inventory still 'thin' with no restocking signs after 20 quarters - this is either the setup for a surprise or structural demand shift

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'26Q4'26Change
Total Revenue$229M (+29% YoY)$243M (+26% YoY)6% sequential growth, maintained 20%+ YoY momentum
Non-GAAP EPS$0.15 (+114% YoY)$0.17 (+183% YoY)13% sequential jump, nearly tripled YoY
Data Center Revenue Mix10% of total sales14% of total sales (+41% sequential)400bps mix increase, new quarterly record
Current Sensors in DC Mix~10% of DC revenue~20% of DC revenueDoubled penetration within data center segment
Focus Auto Revenue$337M (+46% YoY in Q3)$349M (+30% YoY full year)Essentially flat sequentially, growth rate deceleration
Gross Margin49.9%50.0%10bps improvement, 440bps above year-ago
Operating Margin15.4%15.6%20bps improvement with scale leverage
Free Cash Flow$41M (18% of sales)$19MSequential decline due to $17M CapEx surge
CapEx$4M$17M325% sequential jump for Philippines capacity
DSO40 days35 days5-day improvement, collections accelerating

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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