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Call sheet · Q4'25

Riot Platforms (RIOT)

Q4'25 earnings call · held March 2, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
6/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 5 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that Riot has proven they can execute data center delivery with AMD, but at 2.5x the profitability of Bitcoin mining, yet they've only converted 1.5% of their power. The market sees the $663M loss and misses that this is largely non-cash charges on a business model they're abandoning anyway. The binding constraint isn't power or execution capability, it's their inability to close additional leases despite claiming 'multiple high-quality tenants actively engaging.' Management's tell: 'We believe we are incredibly well positioned to execute' while committing $214M to shells without signed tenants. My view changes if they announce a hyperscaler lease in Q1, proving the pipeline is real.

The 30-second version

  • AMD lease is actually 2.5x more profitable per megawatt than Bitcoin mining, yet only represents 3.6% of available power
  • First data center lease validates the pivot, but the $663M net loss masks the real operational strength
  • Management stopped disclosing specific leasing pipeline metrics while claiming 'multiple high-quality tenants actively engaging'

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Total Revenue$458M Q3 (YoY: +100%)$647M FY25 (YoY: +72%)Deceleration in growth rate
Bitcoin Mining Revenue$161M Q3$576M FY25Record annual performance
Net Income/Loss+$104M Q3-$663M FY25Massive swing to loss
Adjusted EBITDA$197M Q3$13M FY2593% collapse despite revenue growth
Bitcoin Production1,406 BTC Q35,686 BTC FY25 (15.3/day)+18% YoY growth
Cost to Mine per BTC$46,324 Q3$49,645 FY25+54% YoY deterioration
Hash Rate Deployed35.5 EH Q338.5 EH year-end+22% YoY matching network growth
Engineering Backlog$224.6M mentioned in Q3 discussion$224.6M year-end+302% YoY but flat QoQ
Power Curtailment Credits$31M Q3$56.7M FY25$10K per BTC mined subsidy
Net Power Cost$0.032/kWh Q3$0.037/kWh FY25+16% cost inflation

Accountability tracked

6 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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