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Call sheet · Q3'26

Medtronic (MDT)

Q3'26 earnings call · held 2026-02-17 · compared with the Q2'26 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
4 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
Stealth AXiS is the stealth story here - a new robot platform targeting the 70% of spine procedures already using navigation, not just a Mazor upgrade. While everyone obsesses over PFA deceleration (which is natural as comps get harder), the real tell is doubled mapping installs this quarter since that capital+consumable model drives future revenue. Simplicity has massive consumer demand (50x website traffic spike) but management dodged procedure volume questions, suggesting conversion rates aren't as impressive as demand metrics. Martha's quote captures the moment: 'We are translating the breadth and the depth of innovation across the portfolio into durable growth.' My view changes if Simplicity procedure counts lag the website traffic surge or if China VBP spreads beyond current segments.

The 30-second version

  • Stealth AXiS is the sleeper robot story hiding in plain sight
  • PFA growth rate is decelerating exactly as expected, but the market missed the mapping install story
  • Simplicity went from 'testing monetization' to actual consumer demand explosion, but they won't quantify procedure volumes

What changed this quarter

MetricQ2'26Q3'26Change
Revenue Growth6.6% reported, 5.5% organic in Q28.7% reported, 6% organic in Q3+50 bps organic acceleration
CAS Growth71% YoY in Q280% YoY in Q3+900 bps acceleration
Adjusted EPS$1.36 in Q2$1.36 in Q3Flat QoQ, +8% YoY
Adjusted Gross Margin65.9% in Q264.9% in Q3-100 bps sequential decline
Cardiovascular Growth9% YoY in Q211% YoY in Q3+200 bps acceleration
Neuroscience Growth4% YoY in Q23% YoY in Q3-100 bps deceleration
MiniMed GrowthHigh single digits in Q215% reported, 8% organic in Q3Strong acceleration
Operating Cash FlowNot specified for Q2Not disclosed for Q3Missing disclosure
Tariff Impact$90-95M expected in Q3$93M actual in Q3In-line with forecast
US GrowthMid-single digit in Q26% YoY in Q3Strongest since FY2019 ex-COVID

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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