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Call sheet · Q4'25

Goldman Sachs Group (GS)

Q4'25 earnings call · held January 15, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
2 medium, 5 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story everyone's missing: Goldman finally killing Platform Solutions creates massive strategic clarity, freeing management to focus entirely on businesses that actually generate returns. The obvious headline is record IB backlog and euphoric M&A predictions, but the binding constraint isn't demand, it's Goldman's own capacity to handle a true 2021-style cycle without blowing up risk controls. David's quote says it all: base case M&A volumes 'pretty close to 2021, and bull outcome is ahead of 2021.' That's not guidance, that's hope masquerading as strategy. My view changes if they provide specific metrics on One Goldman Sachs 3.0 cost savings next quarter rather than more AI theater.

The 30-second version

  • Platform Solutions is finally dying the death it deserved, with Apple Card deal creating perfect regulatory cover to exit consumer banking entirely
  • AWM margin target jumps to 30% from previous guidance, but this feels like moving goalposts rather than genuine operational improvement
  • Investment banking backlog at four-year high despite record Q4 accruals, but Goldman's advisory volume projections sound dangerously euphoric

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
EPS$12.25 (up 40% YoY in Q3)$14.01+14% sequential acceleration
ROE14.2% in Q316.0%+180bp sequential improvement
Global Banking & Markets Revenue$10.1B in Q3Q4 not explicitly broken out, but full year $41.5BRecord full-year performance
Investment Banking FeesNot specified for Q3$2.6B in Q4+25% year-over-year
FICC Net Revenues$3.5B in Q3$3.1B in Q4Sequential decline but +12% YoY
Equities Net Revenues$3.7B in Q3$4.3B in Q4Record quarterly result
AWM Revenues$4.4B in Q3Q4 not broken out, but full year $16.7BSteady growth trajectory
Management & Other Fees$2.9B record in Q3$3.1B in Q4New record, +5% sequential
Assets Under Supervision$3.5T record in Q3$3.6TContinued record highs
Investment Banking BacklogHighest in three years in Q3Four-year highSeventh consecutive quarterly increase

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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