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Call sheet · Q2'26

Goldman Sachs Group (GS)

Q2'26 earnings call · held July 14, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
4/12
Disclosure score
3 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is Goldman's dangerous concentration bet on Asia prime brokerage, driving record results but creating an SLR time bomb at 4.3% that Denis admitted only under pressure. The Street sees 'record everything' but missed that the advisory backlog went nowhere despite massive completions, suggesting pipeline exhaustion masked by PowerPoint prosperity. The binding constraint is their SLR leverage ratio, not capital or demand; they're running out of balance sheet runway while pretending to be 'nimble.' Denis dodging Glenn's concentration question ('it's highly diversified') while refusing to give actual prime balance numbers tells you everything. My view changes if SLR stabilizes above 4.5% next quarter without crimping the financing engine.

The 30-second version

  • Asia equities prime brokerage is the real growth engine, not AI advisory
  • Record results mask a dangerous SLR bind at 4.3%
  • Advisory backlog 'highest in 5 years' but didn't grow despite record completions

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Net Revenues$17.2B (+40% YoY)$20.3B (+18% YoY)YoY growth decelerated 2200bps
EPS$17.55 (2nd highest ever)$20.98 (record)+19.5% QoQ beat
ROE19.8%23.5%+370bps expansion
Global Banking & Markets Revenue$12.7B (record at the time)$15.5B (new record)+22% QoQ acceleration
Equities Financing Revenue$2.6B (+59% YoY)$3.2B (+91% YoY)Growth accelerated 3200bps
Average Prime BalancesRecordAnother recordNo actual numbers disclosed
FICC IntermediationWeak in rates/mortgages+39% YoYSharp reversal from Q1 weakness
Advisory BacklogHighest in 4 yearsHighest in 5 yearsMinimal growth despite record completions
AWM Management Fees$3.1B (+14% YoY)$3.4B (+20% YoY)+600bps acceleration
Provision for Credit Losses$315M$102M68% decline QoQ

Accountability tracked

6 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Read the full GS Q2'26 report Subscribe
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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