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Call sheet · Q3'26

Goldman Sachs Group (GS)

Q3'26 earnings call · held October 13, 2026 · compared with the Q2'26 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that the financing engine Goldman has spent two years building up as its 'durable revenue' thesis just decelerated hard on a sequential basis, with management quietly admitting 'disruption' and client deleveraging behind the scenes while the headline still screams '40%+ of FIC and equities revenue is now financing'. The obvious headline, a near-record $18.7B quarter and $17.01 EPS, is real but partly manufactured: a $450M charitable contribution was explicitly timed to offset an unusually fat, single-deal incentive fee quarter, and a segment they guided specifically last quarter (Platform Solutions) simply disappeared from the call. The binding constraint right now isn't client demand, it's capital discipline: CET1 buffer compressed to 100bps from 150bps even as they kept buying back stock, and SLR language shifted from a hard number to 'we're migrating to a zone where we run a buffer', telling you balance sheet growth for financing-heavy businesses is capped from here. The quote that matters most: David Solomon on AI financing durability, 'I don't know, and nobody knows', a materially more hedged stance than Q2's confident 'early stages of a multi-year investment cycle.' My view changes if next quarter shows equities financing reaccelerating sequentially rather than just YoY, and if Platform Solutions revenue reappears with a clean explanation for this quarter's silence.

The 30-second version

  • The financing flywheel just stalled quietly while everyone celebrates the '40% durable revenue' narrative
  • Headline EPS of $17.01 masks a discretionary $450M charitable write-off used to shave an unusually fat incentive-fee quarter
  • Platform Solutions, the segment they guided on last quarter, simply vanished from the call

What changed this quarter

MetricQ2'26Q3'26Change
Net Revenues$20.3B record$18.7B, second highest ever-7.9% QoQ off a record base
EPS$20.98 record$17.01 GAAP / ~$18 ex-charity-19% QoQ, flattered by non-GAAP add-back
ROE23.5%18.7% GAAP / ~20% ex-charity-480bps QoQ
ROTE25.5%20.5% GAAP / ~21.5% ex-charity-500bps QoQ
GBM Revenue$15.5B record$13.5B, second highest-13% off record
Advisory Revenue$1.4B, +17% YoY$1.7B record, +18% YoYAccelerating, new high
Equities Revenue$7.4B record$6.4B, +72% YoY, second best-14% off record peak
Equity Financing Growth+91% YoY, record+96% YoY record, but only ~3% sequentialSequential growth decelerating sharply despite YoY optics
FICC Revenue$4.6B, +32% YoYEssentially unchanged YoYGrowth engine went flat
AWM Revenue$4.6B, +20% YoY$5.1B, +14% YoYDecelerating growth rate

Accountability tracked

4 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged4 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Read the full GS Q3'26 report Subscribe
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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