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Call sheet · Q4'24

EQT (EQT)

Q4'24 earnings call · held February 19, 2025 · compared with the Q3'24 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
1 medium, 5 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is EQT morphing into a quasi-utility play for data centers without explicitly saying so, with hyperscaler negotiations suggesting premium-to-index deals that could transform the revenue model. The market sees record efficiency gains, but misses that they've structurally reset maintenance capex $500M lower, creating massive torque when gas prices recover. The binding constraint isn't operations or balance sheet anymore, it's waiting for contracted demand to justify growth. Jeremy's tell: 'Something seems to have happened in the last two months.' My view changes if the hyperscaler deals don't materialize by Q3 2025 or if maintenance capex creeps back above $2.2B.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper: EQT is quietly becoming a data center play without saying it
  • The obvious: Record efficiency gains let them drop to 2 frac crews while holding 7 Bcf/day
  • The red flag: They're being suspiciously vague about 2026 production

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'24Q4'24Change
Production (Bcfe)581 (Q3, +4% YoY)605 (Q4, +7% YoY)+24 Bcfe sequential acceleration
Realized Differential ($/Mcf)-$0.65 (Q3)-$0.50 to -$0.60 (Q4 guide)+10 cents tightening
Operating Costs ($/Mcfe)$1.07 (Q3)$1.07 (Q4)Flat despite production surge
CapEx ($M)$573 (Q3)$583 (Q4)+$10M but $200M below H2 guide
Free Cash Flow ($M)Not disclosed (Q3)$588 (Q4)Despite $2.81 Henry Hub
Net Debt ($B)$13.7 (Q3)$9.1 (Q4)-$4.6B from asset sales
Maintenance CapEx Guide ($B)$2.3-2.6 (Q3 preliminary)$1.95-2.1 (2025)-15% reduction
Compression Investment ($M)Peak in 2026 (Q3)$130M peak pulled to 2025Acceleration of value capture
Well Cost ($/foot)Not disclosed (2024)-$70/foot (2025E)Structural cost reduction
Synergies Captured ($M)$145M annualized (Q3)$200M+ annualized+85% of target in 6 months

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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