Earnings Call Intelligence Subscribe
Home › Call Sheets › EQT › Q2'25
Call sheet · Q2'25

EQT (EQT)

Q2'25 earnings call · held July 23, 2025 · compared with the Q1'25 call · management-credibility review
7/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The market sees volatile gas prices and weak Q2 free cash flow; I see EQT locking up the entire AI power opportunity in Appalachia with 20-year contracts while peers chase spot prices. The 1.5 Bcf/d of signed data center demand at 25% unlevered returns makes this the only gas company with genuine growth visibility, though management's timeline slippage from 2027 to 2028 and the suspicious disappearance of working capital metrics warrant caution. The binding constraint isn't demand anymore; it's execution risk on multiple simultaneous infrastructure projects. Jeremy Knop revealed the key: 'We structured the 2 data center projects as Index-plus style deals on fixed volume commitments.' My view changes if PJM power prices collapse or they miss the October MVP Southgate FERC milestone.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper: EQT just locked up 3 Bcf/d of new demand with 20-year data center deals while everyone obsesses over spot gas prices
  • The obvious headline misses the point: Q2 FCF of $240M despite legal settlement obscures $2B cumulative FCF over 3 quarters at $3.30 gas
  • The metric that vanished: Management stopped discussing DSO and working capital details while pivoting to 'sustainable growth'

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'25Q2'25Change
Production (Bcfe)Q1: 560-580 (flat YoY)Q2: 575-595 at high end (up 2% YoY)+25 Bcfe midpoint raise for full year
Free Cash FlowQ1: $1.0B (record quarter)Q2: $240M reported, $375M adjustedDown 76% sequentially on legal settlement
Net DebtQ1: $8.1BQ2: $7.8B$350M reduction, on track for $7.5B target
Capital SpendingQ1: Below guidanceQ2: $50M below low end of guidanceAccelerating efficiency gains
Operating Expense (per Mcfe)Q1: Not specifiedQ2: Lowered by $0.066 cents improvement from Olympus synergies
Compression Program StatusQ1: OngoingQ2: Ahead of schedule, below budgetDelivering 2x expected production uplift
Strategic Growth CapEx PipelineQ1: ConceptualQ2: $1B identified projectsConcrete opportunities crystallized
In-Basin Demand CommitmentsQ1: 'Discussions with dozen projects'Q2: 1.5+ Bcf/d signedFrom talks to signed deals
Hedging Position 2026+Q1: UnhedgedQ2: Added 10% winter collars $4-7Tactical hedging resumed
Equitrans Synergies CapturedQ1: 70% of targetQ2: 85% of target ($360M annual)+$85M incremental synergies found

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made6 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Subscribe to Earnings Call Intelligence
About Research ↗Call SheetsCredibility IndexMissed PromisesScreens13F BooksData & InstitutionalPrivacyTermsSubscribe
This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

Follow what management promises next

Get free previews of our earnings-call research: the key changes, management scores, and questions worth investigating. Subscribe for full call sheets and deeper analysis.

Subscriptions are managed by Substack. If the form does not load, subscribe directly. Or follow the RSS feed.