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Call sheet · Q1'25

EQT (EQT)

Q1'25 earnings call · held April 23, 2025 · compared with the Q4'24 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is EQT using Olympus to build a vertically integrated power supply chain for what could be 'one of the largest [data center] projects in the country,' not just adding gas reserves. The $1B Q1 free cash flow validates the Equitrans thesis but that's backward-looking; the binding constraint is converting their dozen power negotiations into actual contracts before competitors lock up the demand. Jeremy's quote that they're 'increasingly uncertain as to where required production growth will come from' suggests they see a supply squeeze coming, explaining their unhedged stance. My view changes if they fail to announce a major power deal by Q3, which would suggest the in-basin demand thesis is more hope than reality.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper: Olympus acquisition is actually about power plant adjacency, not just gas assets
  • Record Q1 free cash flow of $1B+ proves the Equitrans integration thesis, but that's table stakes now
  • Management confidence mysteriously elevated despite zero hedges in 2026+

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'24Q1'25Change
Production (Bcfe)605 Q4'24High end of guidance Q1'25Tactically surged +300 MMcf/d
Free Cash Flow$588M Q4'24>$1B Q1'25+70% QoQ explosion
Net Debt$9.1B Q4'24$8.1B Q1'25$1B deleveraging in 90 days
Corporate Differential~$0.60 forecast$0.16 tighter than expectedMassive pricing outperformance
Synergies Captured$275M annualized Q4$360M annualized Q1+$85M incremental finds
Well CostNot specified Q4$70/ft reduction expected 2025Step-change efficiency gain
Frac Crews3 crews plannedDropping to 2 in April33% activity reduction
2025 Production Guidance2150-2250 Bcfe preliminary2175-2275 Bcfe+25 Bcfe raise
2025 Capital GuidanceNot specified$1.95-2.1B maintenance$25M reduction at midpoint
Pro Forma Net Debt TargetNot specified~$7B year-end 2025Aggressive deleveraging path

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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