Earnings Call Intelligence Subscribe
Home › Call Sheets › EQT › Q1'26
Call sheet · Q1'26

EQT (EQT)

Q1'26 earnings call · held April 22, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
5/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that EQT just proved they can manufacture $1B in monthly FCF when volatility hits, validating their entire vertical integration thesis, but they're using this windfall to mask that their data center pipeline is vaporizing with deals sliding from H2 2026 to maybe 2028-29. The record $1.8B quarterly FCF grabs headlines but $475M was working capital reversal that's unsustainable. The binding constraint isn't operations or balance sheet anymore; it's that actual demand projects keep sliding right while management talks about 'robust pipelines' without a single signed deal. Jeremy admitted 'a year ago I couldn't have told you about half these projects,' which sounds exciting until you realize he still can't tell you about them today. My view changes if they announce even one firm data center supply agreement with commercial operation date before 2028.

The 30-second version

  • The real story: EQT just proved they can mint $1B of FCF in a single month when volatility hits
  • Record Q1 FCF of $1.8B looks amazing until you realize $475M was working capital reversal
  • Management stopped disclosing specific data center deal timelines after promising updates 'in the second half'

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Production (Bcfe)Q4: 614 (flat YoY)Q1: Above high-end guidance (~630 est.)+16 Bcfe sequential acceleration
Free Cash FlowQ4: $750MQ1: $1,800M+140% sequential explosion
Net DebtQ4: $7.7BQ1: $5.7B$2B reduction in 90 days
Leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA)Q4: ~1.2xQ1: <1.0xBelow 1x achieved
Working Capital ImpactQ4: -$425M usageQ1: +$475M inflow$900M swing
Strategic CurtailmentsQ4: Not specifiedQ2 Guide: 10-15 BcfNew disclosure of synthetic storage
Q2 Production GuidanceN/ALower due to curtailmentsTactical volume management
Data Center PipelineQ4: 45 GW under constructionQ1: 'Multiple Bcf/day' opportunitiesShifted from specific GW to vague Bcf
LNG Portfolio Value (at strip)Q4: Not disclosed$500M annual FCF at 2030New quantification
LNG Portfolio Value (volatility)Q4: Not disclosed$2.5B potential at 2026 spreads5x upside disclosed

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Subscribe to Earnings Call Intelligence
About Research ↗Call SheetsCredibility IndexMissed PromisesScreens13F BooksData & InstitutionalPrivacyTermsSubscribe
This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

Follow what management promises next

Get free previews of our earnings-call research: the key changes, management scores, and questions worth investigating. Subscribe for full call sheets and deeper analysis.

Subscriptions are managed by Substack. If the form does not load, subscribe directly. Or follow the RSS feed.