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Call sheet · Q2'26

Duke Energy (DUK)

Q2'26 earnings call · held August 4, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
8/12
Disclosure score
4 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that Duke's core growth engine, data-center ESA signings, basically stalled this quarter (just +0.2GW versus +2.7GW in Q1), even as management kept the narrative bullish with a new $5B-$10B capex upside headline. The obvious headline, guidance reaffirmed and the DEC settlement locked in at 9.8% ROE, is real and constructive, but it's backward-looking regulatory execution, not forward demand momentum. The binding constraint isn't generation capacity or capital access anymore, it's deal complexity in closing ESAs, as Harry himself conceded: 'these negotiations are taking a little longer at times because they're very complicated transactions'. My view changes if Q3 shows a reacceleration in signed ESA gigawatts back toward the 2+ GW/quarter pace, or if management re-discloses the construction-progress and pipeline-growth metrics that quietly disappeared this quarter.

The 30-second version

  • The ESA conversion engine just stalled, and nobody asked why
  • Guidance reaffirmed and DEC rate case settled, but the pipeline denominator hasn't moved
  • A disclosed metric quietly vanished: construction-progress fraction for ESAs

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Adjusted EPS (YoY growth)$1.93 Q1'26, +9.7% YoY vs $1.76$1.43 Q2'26, +14.4% YoY vs $1.25YoY growth accelerated ~470bps
Reported EPS$1.97$1.38Seasonal step-down (normal Q1 vs Q2 shape)
Signed ESA capacity (data centers)7.6GW, +2.7GW added in quarter7.8GW, +0.2GW added in quarterConversion velocity collapsed ~93%
Late-stage high-confidence pipeline (total)15.4GW, inclusive of signed ESAs~15.4GW implied unchangedFlat despite claimed 'strong interest'
Generation build target14GW over next 5 years15GW by 2031+1GW raised (FL site plan additions)
GE Vernova gas turbines under frameworkNot quantified26 turbinesNew specific disclosure, scope increase
FFO to debt target14.5% (2026) / 15% long term14.5% (2026) / 15% long termUnchanged
ATM equity priced YTD$300M, settles Dec 2027$600M, settles end 2027+$300M issued in the quarter
Dividend increase100th consecutive year milestone, no % given+2% increaseNew quantification, consistent with prior years
ESA capacity 'under construction' fraction~2/3 of 7.6GWNot disclosed for 7.8GWMetric disappeared

Accountability tracked

6 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged5 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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