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Call sheet · Q2'25

Darden Restaurants (DRI)

Q2'25 earnings call · held December 19, 2024 · compared with the Q1'25 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is Uber Direct - this isn't just delivery, it's Darden keeping customer data and pricing power while accessing Uber's driver network, a model other restaurants can't replicate. The obvious headline is the comp recovery, but the real binding constraint is promotional dependence - Never Ending Pasta Bowl had to run 12 weeks instead of 8, and management admits 'we knew we would have a trend change.' Most revealing quote: Rick's admission that 'the gap to the industry, while smaller, we don't expect to keep the gap as high as it is now' - that's Darden acknowledging the competitive environment has permanently shifted. My view changes if Olive Garden can maintain positive comps without extended promotional periods in Q3.

The 30-second version

  • Uber Direct is the sleeper infrastructure play everyone's missing
  • LongHorn's 7.5% comp masks a more important story: steak inflation hedge
  • Never Ending Pasta Bowl's 'record refill rate' is actually a margin warning

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'25Q2'25Change
Total Sales$2.8B (+1% YoY)$2.9B (+6% YoY)+500 bps acceleration
Same-Restaurant Sales-1.1%+2.4%+350 bps swing to positive
Adjusted EPS$1.75 (-3% YoY)$2.03 (+10% YoY)1300 bps acceleration to double-digit growth
Restaurant Level EBITDA18.8% (-20 bps YoY)19.5% (+70 bps YoY)+90 bps improvement quarter-over-quarter
Olive Garden Comp-2.9%+2.0%+490 bps recovery
LongHorn Comp+3.7%+7.5%+380 bps acceleration
Fine Dining Sales+2.0%-3.8%580 bps deceleration to negative
Food & Beverage Costs-50 bps YoY-80 bps YoY30 bps additional favorability
Marketing Expenses+20 bps YoY+30 bps YoY10 bps increase in spend rate
Operating Cash FlowNot specified$445M EBITDAGenerated $308M returned to shareholders

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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