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Call sheet · Q3'24

Cipher Digital (CIFR)

Q3'24 earnings call · held October 31, 2024 · compared with the Q2'24 call · management-credibility review
3/12
Disclosure score
4 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story everyone will miss: Cipher just admitted they're no longer a Bitcoin miner but haven't signed a single HPC customer, making this a costly pivot to nowhere. The obvious Bitcoin expansion headline masks that they're burning $98M in cash per quarter and sold 3x more Bitcoin than they mined just to fund acquisitions. The binding constraint isn't power or sites, it's credibility and capital: they need someone to believe the HPC story enough to either sign a lease or fund the buildout. Most revealing quote: 'We don't yet have specifics to confirm today on our current HPC business negotiations' despite making HPC the entire narrative. My view changes if they announce an actual signed HPC lease with a hyperscaler name and economics attached.

The 30-second version

  • The real story: Cipher just became an HPC development company with a Bitcoin mining hedge, not the other way around
  • The obvious Bitcoin mining expansion masks deteriorating unit economics post-halving
  • Management stopped disclosing DSO and working capital metrics while liquidating 77% of Q3 Bitcoin production

What changed this quarter

MetricQ2'24Q3'24Change
Revenue$37M (Q2 2024, +18% YoY)$24M (Q3 2024, -20% YoY)-35% sequential collapse
GAAP Net Loss$15M loss (Q2 2024)$87M loss (Q3 2024)480% deterioration QoQ
Adjusted Net Loss$3M loss (Q2 2024)$3M loss (Q3 2024)Flat despite revenue collapse
Bitcoin Mined563 BTC (Q2 2024)396 BTC (Q3 2024)-30% production decline
Bitcoin Holdings2,200 BTC (Q2 2024)1,508 BTC (Q3 2024)-31% treasury depletion
Cash Position$123M (Q2 2024)$25M (Q3 2024)-80% cash burn in one quarter
Self-Mining Hash Rate8.7 EH/s (July 2024)10.5 EH/s (current)+21% capacity expansion
All-in Electricity Cost/BTC (Odessa)$23,563 post-halving (Q2)$25,488 post-halving (Q3)+8% cost inflation despite fixed PPA
Depreciation & Amortization$20M (Q2 2024)$29M (Q3 2024)+41% from accelerated depreciation
Odessa PPA Derivative Value$123M (Q2 2024)$74M (Q3 2024)-$49M mark-to-market loss

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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